13.09.21 Technical analysis of BTC / USD – correction, or definitely lower peak?

We have finished the next week, with which comes the analysis on Bitcoin (BTC), where we will focus only on the weekly chart. As I said in Sunday’s video analysis, the very appearance of the candle at the time was not at all favorable. In any case, as I showed on the bond ETF chart yesterday, there are signs that institutional investors are leaving for the bond market on a large scale.

In the bond market, retail investors participate absolutely minimally. That is why it is also so important to monitor this market, as it is much more rational than, for example, the stock market. Institutions are only interested in interest here and do not predict any price increase, as is the case with shares or Bitcoin. I’ll talk more about that on Thursday’s stream on the Sharks to myself channel.

Current situation at 1W BTC / USD

Freshly closed weekly candle is not of course not by any bull. The several weeks of expansion simply broke. However, similar declines were standard during the bull run and then price expansion simply continued. The catch is that most of the dips were redeemed on the same day, so the shape of the candles didn’t look like that.

An exception is the weekly candle from the end of February, after which Bitcoin continued to expand anyway. But to the more rational ones, it was immediately obvious that something had gone wrong. Ignoring these bear candles is not sensible at all. We know now how it turned out. But we are mainly interested in the present. We found out from Price Action that the support confluence around $ 42,000 works great.

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The confluence consists of the Low Volume Node volume profile, the price level and the moving average of MA 20. The reflection was therefore almost immediate last week. Which implies that shoppers have strong support on their side. As for again volumes, these overshadowed the volumes from the previous few weeks.

So they were absolutely not dizzying. If I had to start with volumes only, I would guess that the last drop meant a simple corrective movement for Bitcoin. But there are a few hooks. Bull volumes were too weak during the several weeks of expansion and it is no longer the autumn of 2020. The environment in the financial markets is naturally different, which we must also take into account. It can’t be otherwise.

By that I mean that last week’s bear volume may be enough for sellers to gain enough confidence and go in full force. The current week may be much larger sales volumes – in short, a new trend may arise here. The fact that the rejection took place on the Golden Ratio of the Fibonacci sequence, where historically, bread has always been broken, also plays a disadvantage.

But the $ 42,000 is a really strong level. In addition, depending on the volume profile, the price range is 42,000 – 30,000 USD one big wall. Therefore, it is not entirely easy to choose your side.

Indicators

The momentum on RSI is now, of course, negative. Wait a minute and we’ll be back under 50 points – problem. Although there was a bullish cross on MACD a few weeks ago, BTC almost didn’t react at all.

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In conclusion

It is unlikely that Bitcoin created a lower peak than in early 2018. But it would want confirmation in the form of massive selling pressure. But the fact that the $ 42,000 is a very relevant level still works in favor of the bulls. Therefore, it will be a question of whether it will arise higher low.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!