The usual political scenario at the end of the month marks two important aspects compared to May: the significant reduction in the distance between the first three parties (Lega, Pd and FdI) and the strong growth of consensus for the government and President Draghi. Lately the polls have registered a volatility in the voting orientations: in the weekly surveys carried out in June, the approach of the first three political forces led to changes in the ranking that aroused surprise and aroused much controversy.
Allow me a brief methodological observation: the note accompanying the survey is not a tinsel, but helps to understand the ways in which information is collected and estimates are processed.; those published in this column at the end of each month are based on 1,000 interviews which, with appropriate weighting criteria, are processed together with the 5,000 interviews carried out in the previous four weeks. This procedure allows you to give more stability to the estimates. Conversely, in those processed weekly, taking into account that the interviewees who indicate a voting orientation represent about 60%, if in the sample there are 3 more or fewer voters for a party than in the previous week, the latter will increase or decrease by 0,5% and the variation will lie within the sampling margin of error. Furthermore, the survey is a photograph, not a prediction.
That said, today’s estimates show a difference of 0.7% between the top three parties: the League with the 20,1% precedes the Pd (19,7%) e FdI (19,4%). Salvini’s party is estimated to have fallen by more than 2 points compared to May and touches the lowest point since the beginning of the legislature, but makes the counter-overtake on the Pd compared to the poll two weeks ago, with all due respect to those who had shouted scandal . Following are the M5S (16.5%) e FI (7.9%). In the rear, the variations are of a few decimal places and the area of non-voting and indecision remains above 40%. The three parties of center right overall they maintain a consistent advantage over the center left (47,4% a 31,2%) as well as onformer Giallorossi majority (with the exclusion of Italia viva) which would attest to 39,9%.
Passent to the approval of politicians, the first place of Giuseppe Conte is confirmed (index 49, down by 2 points) preceding Giorgia Meloni (40, up by 3) and Roberto Speranza (stable at 38). The progressive approach of the former premier at the helm of the M5S determines the opposite effect of a decline in his personal appreciation (from the institutional profile he assumes that of head of a political force) and of the simultaneous increase in consensus for the M5S. Undoubtedly the tensions between Conte and Grillo these days could have repercussions on the popularity of both. Giorgia Meloni benefits from the choice to make an opposition that is not aggressive but dialoguing, just think of the recent cordial meeting with President Draghi. Speranza is appreciated more as a Minister of Health than as a leader of Art.1.
In today’s poll we also found the approval of political ministers, known by at least half of Italians: Franceschini (index 32) and Giorgetti (31) are the most popular. Finally, the evaluations on the executive and the premier which show even higher values than those recorded at the establishment, when usually the greatest consensus is obtained: today the approval rating of the work of the government stands at 69 and that of president Draghi sale a 71, both up by 5 compared to May. In addition to a more positive social climate, following the progress of the vaccination campaign, the reopening of most of the activities, the more positive economic situation compared to initial forecasts and the expectations raised by the NRP, it is worth highlighting two aspects that determine growth. consensus: the first concerns the international recognition of the premier’s authority which reverberates on the image of our country; the second refers to the communicative style of President Draghi: an essential, dry but authoritative style, very clear and direct even on issues that do not directly concern the government’s activity, as happened this week with the intervention in the Senate on the bill Zan in response to the Vatican note verbale.
June 26, 2021 (change June 26, 2021 | 07:19)
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED