$60K becomes resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with a rare disappointment for its fourth quarter bull run – failing to break past support level.

After a promising weekend, the BTC/USD finally saw the rejection at $60,000 twice and has since dropped to below $57,000 as market momentum waned.

The stakes are high: some believe Bitcoin’s sky-high price targets can still be met by the end of the month, while others believe this bull market will take longer to unfold than past ones.

With November looking increasingly inclined to break with tradition and deliver less than expected – both compared to recent months and bull market years – traders and analysts are gearing up for a desperate but potentially interesting monthly close .

The Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that could shape BTC price action in the final week of a stressful Moonvember.

$60,000 jumps into resistance

For most of the weekend, the mood among analysts was simple: “It could be worse.”

After hitting a five-week low of $55,650, the BTC/USD managed to recoup some of its losses and on Saturday it even “widened the gap” to hover around $60,000.

All in all, that was unsuccessful, but on Sunday there was another try, with Bitcoin enjoying a few minutes in the $60,000 range, before firm rejection sent the market down once more.

As of this writing on Monday, $57,000 is forming a focus, with the clear impetus that what was once solid support has turned into resistance.

Popular trader Pentoshi summed up the mood, reiterating his desire for $61,000 to be claimed as support for the continuation of the rally.

$ BTC why is 61k important?

BC support turned into BC resistance. Hence the focus on that area for me for now.

Here’s another way to look at it.

What I want? I want over 61k. Does the market care what we want?

Not.

61,000 US dollars for the return of the bull pic.twitter.com/egMRfuLxfV

– Pentoshi won’t send you a DM. Hates DM’s. DMs are scams (@Pentosh1) November 22, 2021

November 2021 has so far delivered negative returns of -6.5% for hodlers, making it one of only three Novembers in Bitcoin history not to produce gains.

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As reported by the Cointelegraph, other years have seen transformative price actions, including in 2020, when the BTC/USD rose nearly 43% in November.

Sunday’s slowdown, however, managed to fill the last CME futures gap created on Friday, something that has again become a feature of the spot price this month.

For trader and analyst Crypto Ed, this is what needed to happen to increase the chances of a return to the rally in the new week.

“Waiting for another step to fill the CME tonight and move up from there again in the next few days,” he said he in part of the Twitter comments on Sunday.

mysterious similarities

For all the frustration of a Bitcoin fix just when it’s least welcome, not everyone is surprised — or worried.

Short terms can paint a completely different picture of the market’s health for longer ones, and that’s what commentators intend to support an enduring thesis this week.

“If in doubt, zoom out” – compared to its performance in the previous two years after reducing block subsidies, Bitcoin remains on the right track.

“Remarkably similar corrective structures thus far on the BTC 8H,” confirmed or TechDev analyst not Sunday.

“Almost identical 4 years apart. 2021 continues 5 to 8 days ago from 2017 since July.”

TechDev referred to data showing that not only did Bitcoin repeat its 2017 performance this year, but it also pretty much copied the deadlines for each phase of its bull market.

If this continues, the bullish burst phase should also appear – except this time, in an order of magnitude greater than the $20,000 in 2017.

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A graph even shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is copying and pasting its 2017 performance in November in particular.

Typically, bull cycle tops are accompanied by an RSI reading of 90 or more, far from the current reading at lower time periods.

Financing increases with $60,000 rematch

Despite losing the battle for $60,000, the process of trying to get out of lower levels had an undesirable impact on derivatives markets, where traders are increasing leverage once again.

After being effectively “reset” to neutral during last week’s lows, funding rates are on the move again.

Being overly positive, as is the case with Bybit, OKEx, and others at the time of this writing, suggests an upward bias—the expectation that additional earnings are available.

This can often have undesirable results as a fall in prices starts to unravel a large number of positions and the snowball effect drives prices even further down.

So far, settlements remain silent, however – $70 million for Bitcoin and $219 million in cryptocurrency markets in the last 24 hours.

“Diluted sales, so the question is which side of the market you are on this week,” blogger 52kskew summed up on Twitter on Monday, noting what happened in the $60,000 retest.

The market is hungry for liquidity, decreasing the volume of buying and selling.

(reflects that most market participants are waiting for confirmations or hedges)

Diluted sales, so the question is which side of the market you are on this week. https://t.co/tpnOsyGErZ pic.twitter.com/Hk4RIfGIiM

– Δ (@ 52kskew) November 22, 2021

Meanwhile, open interest on Bitcoin futures has yet to break historic highs prior to the Nov. 10 drop.

The dollar is the star of the show

In macro markets, nervousness about the measures against the coronavirus – and the protests in response to them – continue to present a variety show.

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With inflation already firmly on the radar, talks are now turning to the US Federal Reserve, increasing the pace of its asset-buying cuts next month.

“If this idea spreads and is repeatedly emphasized, it will increase the likelihood that the taper announced in December will be faster than the pace announced in early November,” said Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at forecaster ​​Prestige Economics for Bloomberg.

Stealing the spotlight this week, however, is the US dollar.

The Dollar beat longstanding resistance this month to hit its strongest point since July 2020, according to the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY).

Typically, pronounced DXY gains have the opposite effect on Bitcoin, which suffers during these periods. November was no exception as DXY veered sharply to a high and maintained a reading of 96.

“The problem? The feeling is getting too extreme in FX land (foreing exchange, exchanges for foreign currencies in English)”, warned analyst Helene Meisler over the weekend.

A turnaround to the unusually volatile DXY would inversely provide an inverse correlation test with the BTC.

The feeling says “wait and see”

On the topic of market humor, inside cryptocurrencies, investors are on the fence.

The latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading shows that despite the short-term price behavior, the market is actually completely neutral.

At 50/100, Fear & Greed is right in the middle of its range of possible values, highlighting a lack of “extreme” feeling.

That could work in Bitcoin’s favor, as last week’s upheaval has pushed sentiment back into “fear” territory it has now recovered from.

Compare that to the Fear & Greed Index of traditional markets and the dichotomy is clear: “extreme greed” characterized the latter in the previous close, and now, “greed” still remains.

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