A good sign that the Republicans have left the house? Look where Trump is going.

A good sign that the Republicans have left the house? Look where Trump is going.

According to this article, FiveThirtyEight gives the Democratic Party a chance of 86 percent to win the house next Tuesday. People are likely to be bad, and "an 86 percent chance" sounds like "it's going to happen". We've developed a small tool earlier this month to show how such odds work by using random percentages and showing how gambling can be turned into a lost bet. Eighty-six percent? No sure thing.

You have 1,000 dollars, How much would you bet that a red square from the box below is randomly selected? The probability is 86 percent.

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However, we have other evidence that the Republicans are in trouble. Namely: President Trump.

On Monday he sat down for an interview with Laura Ingraham of Fox News. She offered various accolades for Trump in the course of her conversation, including the statement that, according to the Republican Party, he was "the best closer", the party leaders said. In other words, if there is a close race that needs to be crossed, Trump is the place to go.

Unusually, Trump does not bite the chance to hype himself

"I get 25 and 35,000 people for these rallies," he said. "No one has ever seen – there has never been one – it's not boastful – there's never been anything like it."

He continued talking about his recent rally for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Which was attended by an estimated 16,000 people. Note, however, that this is a senate Race for which Trump was dumb. That's the norm – almost certainly, because the GOP has much better chances of holding the Senate.

From 1 October to Election Day, Trump will likely hold at least 26 rallies. More can be added or the list below can change. Of the last 17 of these rallies, three were in districts where a competitive home race is taking place.


(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Twelve of the 17 rallies take place in locations where the Cook Political Report rates the Senate competition as a throw or link to one or the other party (as opposed to one) probably win for the party). Six are, according to Cook, visits to states with narrow government races. In only one of the 17 final rallies, the local home race is the most contested thing on the ballot.

Most of the places where Trump will travel next week are places he easily won in 2016. An interesting exception is a rally planned for the day before the Cleveland elections.

Until October 18, Trump visited a number of competitive home districts. About ten days earlier, when probably many travel decisions were made, the democratic chances for the reconquest of the house according to FiveThirtyEight were about 74 percent. As the house card became increasingly gloomy, Trump seems to have stopped planning trips to contested districts.

Granted, it's not even clear that Trump is so close. He often recruits for his strong inventory, but this also includes Republican primary competitions, where his support obviously has much more weight. In Democratic-Republican competitions since he was president, his candidate has won two-thirds of the time – mostly in districts where Trump himself easily won in 2016.

Part of the problem for Trump is likely to exist so many House seats thrown for the Republicans this year. If he visited any of the Republican home districts rated by Cook as a litter, he would have to do four rallies a day for the next seven days – and he would still be left out.

But it probably would not matter. The state of affairs in Parliament suggests that the maintenance of GOP control of the chamber is already unattainable. A good prerequisite for securing a good reputation is to try to complete only the businesses you can win – for example, the Senate seats in states that you won easily two years ago, from blue to red bring.

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