A match three with Lorient and Bastia to ANSL
Lorient 18e , 35 pts -26 goal difference
The main advantage for Lorient, it is to be masters of their own destiny. With a victory against Bordeaux on Saturday, the Hake would be assured to retain their 18e instead. They would have the same chance of doubling Caen (a point ahead) on a trip to Paris or Dijon on a trip to Toulouse. The Lorient could even save themselves without going through the dams with a single null result. Another benefit of its size, to Lorient : this decisive meeting will take place at home, in a Moustoir sold out. In addition, the Hake will receive a team of bordeaux already virtually european. Even in case of defeat, Bordeaux is guaranteed to retain its sixth position, which will be synonymous with qualification in the Europa League if PSG are the big favorite for the final of the Coupe de France, is required before the SCO Angers on may 27.
But there is another way to see the situation of the Girondins. Bordeaux must absolutely win to go on holiday with the certainty of playing in Europe next season, without starting to support PSG in the final of the Coupe de France. If the men, coached by Jocelyn Gourvennec evolve to their true level, they were largely able to apply to Lorient. To the extent that the Hake will be deprived of the ex-Nancéien Moukandjo and Marveaux, wounded, and Ciani, suspended. A double or not simple to address for the Lorient which mark the not after their impressive ‘ remontada “. A bit like a tennis player who has the arm-shaking at the time of the conclusion of the match. A little, also, as the ANSL 2012-2013, after a wonderful resurrection with Patrick Gabriel from January… Last point to take into account, and not the least : it’s been several days that the French football speaks of the non-renewal of the contract of the coach Bernard Casoni, despite its good results. Not the top to prepare for a match that will decide the future of the club.
Our rating : 85 % chance to finish in front of Bastia and Nancy.
Bastia 19e 34 pts -24 differences of goals
The people of Bastia are rescued. Everyone promised the L2 after the incidents at Furiani against Lyon, on April 16. But since, in spite of the lost match on green carpet (pending the outcome of their appeal next week…), the Corsicans are back in the race to maintain. They did it by winning the two home matches that they have had to play behind closed doors at Fos-sur-Mer, in the face of Rennes and Lorient. Bastia visits to the Velodrome with this feeling of being income from nowhere, which allows in general to play more of a free spirit. There is some offensive talent in this Sporting, with the striker Crivelli and the dribbleur Saint-Maximim, who did not join the team of France U20 to the World that after the Marseille – Bastia.
The Velodrome is not the ideal place for a team playing for its survival. As the OM, 5e with a one-point lead on Bordeaux must win to ensure its qualification in the Europa League without having to rely on the final of the Coupe de France PSG – Angers. Engaged in its ” Champions Project “, with the American McCourt, Marseille does not have the right to fail. Even in the case of a tie in Provence, this would be already a great performance, Bastia, could be sent in the L2.
Our rating : a 5% chance to finish ahead of Lorient and Nancy.
Nancy 20e , 32 pts -25 goal difference
After just one win in fifteen matches, it is a small miracle for the ANSL to still have the possibility of tearing out the dams during the final day of L1. Nancy has the advantage, also, to finish the championship at home, and on its synthetic field if an individual who is living his last minutes of football. In front, there will be a quality team but Saint-Etienne, after having long flirted with the european markets, no longer has anything to fear nor to hope for.
The essential Pedretti will not be enough for this Nancy – Saint-Etienne. After Muratori and Diarra, the infirmary of the Forest of the Hague, also welcomed this week Robic, Christian, and Dia for muscle problems ! Given the state of its membership and the level displayed for several weeks, ANSL is far away, even very far, to have match won in spite of everything. And if the Nancéiens managed to find the path to victory, they should be able to count on a defeat to Lorient and a defeat from Bastia to offer the place of dams. In the case of null-Bastia at the Vélodrome, Nancy should squarely be imposed by two clear goals in the face of the Green to overtake the team from corsica to the goal-average. Score twice ? This would be a much asked for to the worst attack in L1 and Europe…
Our rating : 10 % chance to finish ahead of Lorient and Bastia.