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“a rebalancing”, underlines the Breton political scientist Thomas Frinault

“The presidential majority in Brittany, even if it has some significant defeats, still remains, and by quite a distance, the first parliamentary political force“, underlines this Monday morning the Rennes political scientist Thomas Frinault, the day after the second round of the legislative elections. “The presidential majority would have liked to have the same scores as it has in Brittany at the national level.

The lecturer in political science at Rennes 2, invited to analyze the results of these elections in the special morning of France Bleu Armorique, highlights the results of the left, united under the banner of Nupes. She “progress a bit. But we must also remember that she was starting from a very low base, in 2017, because she had lost almost everything. We can see that his main satisfaction is what is happening in Ille-et-Vilaine, in the districts around Rennes. This is where we have a rebalancing moreover since it must be remembered that out of the eight constituencies of Ille-et-Vilaine, there are five which escape the presidential majority. This is really what sets this department apart from the rest of Brittany.”

Two heavyweights of macronie “out”

“LR-UDI managed to somehow maintain the Malouin bastion“, continues the political scientist Thomas Frinault. “For the rest, there are obviously the satisfactions in terms of a changeover, we think of the constituency of Guingamp, which was a constituency historically anchored on the left. The presidential majority had won by very very little in 2017 and there it is switching on the left. We also think of the defeat of Richard Ferrand, outgoing President of the National Assembly. There is still a defeat that is not just symbolic, a very heavy defeat, and in fact, you have two heavyweights of the macronie in Brittany who lost Richard Ferrand and Florian Bachelier in the eighth constituency of Ille-et-Vilaine, who was still the first quaestor of the National Assembly.

Thomas Frinault points out that Brittany also loses two central places in the parliamentary political space, “since we had the president of the National Assembly and the first quaestor, there are no longer any, so it is also the question of the representation of the Bretons in the national political space which is becoming completely residual.

Renewed mobilization on the side of Nupes

The election was also once again marked by low mobilization, with abstention exceeding 53% at the national level. “We voted little, after that we can’t say that it’s counter-intuitive. You still have to remember that in 2017, we had a bad participation score in the first round and that it was significantly worse in the second. this point of view, I would say that there is less depression between the first and the second round”continues the lecturer in political science, who also wonders about the evolution of voters between the first and second rounds. “A frontist voter, does he move in this second round with a Nupes-presidential majority duel? Many prefer to stay at home. That still means that if there has not been a significant drop in participation, this means that there are still abstainers from the first round who probably mobilized for this second round.

Finally, another lesson to be learned from this second round of regional elections, “the good classical students, like Morbihan, were rather abstainers this time, while the bad classical students like Ille-et-Vilaine, there, we still saw a significant rebound of a few points and which has could play in the results”, concludes Thomas Frinault.

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