Conversely, he believes that “if there is no second containment, the Belgian and world economies will gradually recover. “
Un second confinement would sound the death knell for the Belgian economy, ensures Monday the credit insurer Atradius, on the sidelines of the publication of its latest barometer. He also notes that bankruptcies have been fewer in Belgium than in neighboring countries, despite a more severely affected gross domestic product.
In addition to a drop in GDP that Atradius figures at -8.9%, the impact of the coronavirus crisis is also reflected in an increase in the number of bankruptcies, by 19% according to the insurer. It is better than the average expected in the world (+29%) and much less than in Spain (+70%) and the Netherlands (+65%). Atradius mainly explains this finding by “the large tax injection from the Belgian government”, which would have made it possible to reduce the number of bankruptcies by a quarter.
For the rest, the insurer believes that “if there is no second containment, the Belgian and world economies may gradually recover during the second half of the year as well as in 2021.” “In the scenario the most favorable, we expect GDP to increase again by 7.7% in 2021 ”, specifies Christophe Cherry of Atradius Belgium. “Just like in our neighboring countries, we expect our economy to fully recover in 2021. However, we will all have to work together to proactively contain the virus and avoid a second containment, as it could give the blow grace of the Belgian economy. “