(Bloomberg) – The world’s largest bond market is set for another trade that encourages me to fear next week, and this one could drive a return to the places that were steeped a few months ago.
Demand for safe assets has increased, Funds return to levels that were seen when investors were set on recession risks. The fruit curve was re-launched this week. The 10-year benchmark is close to slipping below 1.5% for the first time since early September, and the 30 years fell below 2% on Friday.
These levels may not be high, but there is certainly a lot going on. The Chinese stock market will open under compulsion and authorities struggle to have coronavirus. Politically, the attention is paid to President Donald Trump’s migration trial to Iowa vehicles and the popularity of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. We hope that a report will show that US factories are recovering. And that Monday only.
“What we see in bond markets is now reflecting global economic concerns rather than the economic concerns of the US,” says Lauren Goodwin, multi-sector portfolio strategies at New Life Life Insurance Co., Ireland. to hurt confidence in the growth of the SA and yield of lower crops.
It is perhaps the best chance for results to climb out of the midweek ditch with a quarterly Treasury repayment notice, which will set out future government debt sales. The Treasury Department is likely to maintain loans at least at a fourth. The market is looking for details on the new 20-year bond, and as this issue is coming soon, investors will be alert to another surprise.
Friday’s payroll data is then expected to show another month of strong job gains. The labor market remains a strong foundation for the view that the US economy can continue to meet without further assistance from the Federal Reserve this year. Chairman Jerome Powell revisited this position after the policy maker’s meeting this week, even when money market traders added the idea that there could be more than one rate of feed rate in 2020.
But if economic data does not come up with a terrible shock in the coming days, says Eric Stein, Eaton Vance’s portfolio manager, the market is more likely to focus on the emerging health crisis than reports that are somewhat stale on the state of the economy. Deputy Chairman Fed Richard Clarida described the outbreak as a “wild card” for US economic outlook on Bloom Television Television Friday.
“What could the FED put in place to make monetary policy? Data slightly stronger or weaker, probably, ”Stein said. “Something like the coronavirus, if it happens to be very bad? Yes. ”
What to Watch
The major suspension is the reopening of Chinese financial markets Monday after Lunar New Year holiday. Investors are watching Monday night racuses in Iowa as a potentially crucial point in the Democrats race to the White House, and the Treasury Department releases their fundraising plans for the fourth day on Wednesday. Payroll Reports. 3: PMI manufacturing Markit; ISM manufacturing index; construction expenditure; total vehicle sales. 4: orders for goods, durable goods and capital goods. 5: MBA mortgage applications; Change in ADP employment; trade balance; Markit PMI services; ISM non-manufacturing indexFeb. 6: challenging job cuts; nonfarm productivity; workless claims; Bloomberg consumer. 7: Monthly job description; wholesale inventories and trade sales; consumer communicationsWelcome communication: February. 3: Raphael Bostic Atlanta Fed speaks of major data and AIFed. 5: Governor Lael Brainard on payment innovationFeb. 6: Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed, the economic outlook; Vice Chairman Randal Quarles on monetary policy and economic outlook. 7: Fed releases a semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress
Next week’s loan updates start with Treasury’s first quarter funding estimates and the mid-week repayment statement: t
3 February: Exchequer issues issue funding estimates; billing 13 and 26 weeks. 5: Treasury repayment statement. Bill auctions 6: 4- and 8 weeks
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