With one round left, five teams can still earn the double chance – but it’s West Coast on the outside looking in.
The top two is set, with Port Adelaide and Brisbane to host qualifying finals. For them, it’s just a matter of who finishes first and who finishes second.
Meanwhile the 2018 premiers are likely to just miss out on the top four for the second straight season, thanks to Richmond’s win over Geelong on Friday night.
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That result catapulted the Tigers onto 46 points, two ahead of both the Cats and Eagles. The Cats then have an enormous percentage advantage for fourth.
There is at least some good news for West Coast fans; a home elimination final is almost certainly the only way they’ll be allowed to play a final at Optus Stadium this year.
Here’s where the five contenders sit heading into Round 18, and where they can all finish.
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PORT ADELAIDE (13-3, 52 pts, 136.4%)
vs Collingwood, Monday 7:15pm at the Gabba
Win: Finish 1st unless passed by Brisbane on percentage (they lead by approx. 15 goals), then would finish 2nd
Lose: Finish 2nd unless Brisbane loses to Carlton, then would finish 1st
Prediction: Finish 1st, home qualifying final v Geelong
BRISBANE LIONS (13-3, 52 pts, 124.7%)
vs Carlton, Saturday 7:40pm at the Gabba
Win: Finish 2nd, unless Port Adelaide loses to Collingwood OR they pass Port Adelaide on percentage (would need to beat Carlton by 15+ goals), then would finish 1st
Loss: Finish 2nd
Prediction: Finish 2nd, home qualifying final v Richmond
RICHMOND (11-4-1, 46 pts, 125.8%)
vs Adelaide Crows, Saturday 5:10pm at the Adelaide Oval
Win: Finish 3rd
Lose: Finish 5th if West Coast beats North Melbourne and Geelong beats Sydney, finish 4th if only one of West Coast or Geelong wins, finish 3rd if West Coast and Geelong both lose
Prediction: Finish 3rd, away qualifying final v Brisbane
GEELONG CATS (11-5, 44 pts, 138.9%)
vs Sydney Swans, Sunday 3:35pm at Metricon Stadium
Win: Finish 3rd if Richmond loses to Adelaide, finish 4th if Richmond beats Adelaide
Lose: Finish 5th if West Coast beats North Melbourne, finish 4th if West Coast loses to North Melbourne
Prediction: Finish 4th, away qualifying final v Port Adelaide
WEST COAST EAGLES (11-5, 44 pts, 116%)
vs North Melbourne, Thursday 7:10pm at Metricon Stadium
Win: Finish 3rd if Richmond loses to Adelaide and Geelong loses to Sydney, finish 4th if one of those happens, finish 5th if neither happens
Lose: Finish 5th
Prediction: Finish 5th, home elimination final v Collingwood
We’ll have a full analysis of the remaining top eight contenders on Monday night, after Collingwood’s game against Gold Coast.