ANALYSIS economic Growth record in 2017 is impressive, but in 2018 we’re in danger of slowing the advance

ANALYSIS economic Growth record in 2017 is impressive, but in 2018 we’re in danger of slowing the advance


the Romanian Economy has recorded a growth of 8.6% in the third quarter of this year and an increase of 6.9% in the first nine months, announced Tuesday the National Institute of Statistics (INS). And Eurostat, the european statistics institute, pointed out that Romania has recorded the biggest advance of the GDP of the EU, in the third quarter. The minister of Finance, Ionut Misha, did not hesitate to praise this performance. “The economic situation of Romania is incomparably better than in the year 2016. Currently, our country ranks among the most dynamic economies of the European Union, and the direction of development is appreciated by investors and by international bodies”, he said.

And the press agency AFP has used to describe the economic growth of Romania the term “tiger”.

“Grudge very well for the Government”

Analysts believe that, indeed, this growth is impressive. “It is impressive and spades very well for the Government at this time. Many indicators for the end of the year will look better than worry about a few days ago, because at higher growth, obvious that the budget deficit is going to be more reasonable than it would have seemed otherwise. And many other indicators,” said the analyst Aurelian Dochia for “the Truth”.

further Supported by consumer

however, economic growth is further supported by consumer. “It is without a doubt driven by consumption, because at the same time we also have data on external trade, which shows that the deficit has deepened, especially on the trade of goods. To services things are somewhat better, but never the services may not cover the deficit that makes him the trade of goods,” said Aurelian Dochia.

AFP also shows, citing an analysis of ING Romania, that this acceleration was most likely supported by the consumer.

According to Unicredit Bank, several economic sectors have performed: the industry has grown strongly in the third quarter by 8.5%, retail sales have accelerated to 13.4%, and construction, and have tempered the decrease in the -5,5%, while agriculture has probably had a positive contribution to the strong, thanks of a good harvest.

also, and the members of the board of directors of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) argue that, probably, the consumption of households will probably increase more than the contribution to growth in the period 2017-2018.

What will happen in 2018

In 2018, however, both the analysts and the NBR expects that the advance of the economy to slow down.

“I Think that the painting with which we end the year 2017 will be able to be presented as being very nice, but I think that I still have to keep our vigilance and concern in regards to 2018, because it is hard to believe that in 2018 the engines of growth will continue to go at the same rate, in the conditions in which first of all increases of income and of wages which have been so far as decided I can no longer be continued, and perhaps then they will start to explode some of the deficits that we’re talking about now and will look worse the situation then,” said Aurelian Dochia.

AFP notes that, in the long term, Romania’s economy remains threatened by a “slowdown structural” growth, mainly “due to shortages of manpower”, in a country affected by a strong migration and a demography in half, just like its neighbors in Eastern Europe.

And the NBR claims that the Romanian economy is expected to accelerate more strongly than was expected, in this year, following that it to temper pronounced in 2018 and to slow down modestly into 2019. “Members of the Council have noted that economic growth is expected to record in 2017 an acceleration sensitive stronger than previously expected, followed by a slowdown more pronounced in 2018 and a slowdown modest in 2019, the dynamics of its projected remaining above the pace of potential GDP in 2018, but then down to a value slightly lower”, it shows in the minutes of the meeting of the monetary policy of the Board of directors of the National Bank of Romania from November 7, 2017.

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