Another show of the ruling party between the unusual and the absurd

The ruling party in all its conflicting variants seems stubborn in repeat before the abyss a dance that takes place between the unusual, the absurd and the recklessness, without its own authors being able to explain it with consistency and plausibility. In internal and external politics and in economy everything develops according to the same pattern.

Due to its novel nature, it is worth starting with the surprising and enigmatic justification that in the last hours they began to give him from Olivos and the Casa Rosada to the presidential tour of Europejust completed.

The official version says that Alberto Fernandezin his capacity as head of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) faced a more than ambitious secret management before the president of France, Emanuelle Macron, and the chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. Nothing less is proposed than to change from the periphery the course of events that has the center of the world in suspense, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“In the coming weeks it will be seen if it prospers, but the proposal was listened to with great interest”, they affirm with an air of mystery and without blushing around the President.

For now, all the unknowns about that supposed mission remain open, but among the most probable answers, no more than two appear. One would be that it is a unique strategy to save time (another one), in search of defending, by way of absurdity, a hitherto inexplicable tourexcept for the President’s need to distance himself from the many domestic disorders (in a broad sense) that afflict him.

The other option is that you are before a royal essay, as bold as it borders on megalomaniato which those close to Fernández have some semblance of viability.

The impossibility (or inability) to limit the endless escalation of internal disputes within the ruling coalition cements doubts about this possibility. The same could be said of Fernández’s presentation of Argentina as an alternative source for gas supply to Europe, despite the fact that the country is today and for some years to come an importer of this fuel, whose supply for this winter is not even assured. But the cliché says that nobody is a prophet in his land.

What is relevant, in any case, is that in Fernández’s inner circle they promote and spread it with enthusiasm, as a relevant fact of the presidential administration. Opportunely, Carlos Menem also tried to be a manager of peace in the Middle East.

“In conversations with Macron and Scholz, Alberto suggested that it was necessary to think beyond the antinomies Russia-Ukraine, Russia-NATO, because the consequences of the war are already being felt everywhere and threaten to cause world famine, especially in Africa. The President explained that under this premise more actors can be incorporated to seek a ceasefire”, detailed a prominent member of the presidential delegation. Will those actors include Cristina Kirchner to soften the hard heart of Vladimir Putin? Follow the secrecy.

Anyway, It is not the first time that the Fernández administration has set itself challenges on a planetary scale. He already did it during the debt renegotiation with private creditors and in discussions to agree with the International Monetary Fund, in which it was intended to set a world precedent. That explains the long and burdensome delay before reaching an agreement. The claim to change the principles of world architecture while the leaks that have been ruining one’s home for decades have not been fixed is not negotiated. But time passes and Argentina’s problems deepen. Fernández and Guzmán have already verified it and suffered it in their own flesh. It is not known if they recorded it.

Simultaneously, voices are heard that once again try to edit, to sweeten, the barrage that the mother and son Kirchners fired at the President in just one week.

The attacks preceded and followed the media raid in which Fernández sought to use microphones, cameras, digital sites and European newspapers to rehearse renewed and firmer gestures of autonomy and strength. However, after he himself relativized them again, including his re-election project, accusing journalism of having promoted them. Nothing new.

The relativization of his own statements exposes the transience of the passage from “passive resilience to active resilience”, as some of his officials had described the presidential European awakening. Now they hope that at least it does not go back.

That is the greatest fear felt by Fernández’s closest collaborators. With his statements, the President “has climbed an important step in the internal dispute, if it goes down now it could be very hard for him and for all of us. There can be no going back,” said a high-ranking official with immaculate Albertist DNA midway through the week. Not being a believer, he began to pray.

Both sources close to Fernández and from the Kirchnerist universe agree now, after so much fire, that all the anger and attacks are concentrated on Martín Guzmán and that they exclude the President. As if what was said had not been literal enough and did not admit too many exegesis. But, above all, as if one thing and the other could be divided.

The indivisibility of Fernández and Guzmán was reaffirmed since the President decided to support his minister, almost tying himself to the fate of the benevolent forecasts of economic recovery that the Minister of Economy and his beleaguered peers Matías Kulfas and Claudio Moroni they provide on the progress of economic activity, consumption and employment.

The reasons for this brand new relativization of the dispute that both parties proclaim is that nobody wants to appear as destituent or as an actor in a divorce. But everything is too explicit. One can only speak of a continuity of the link for convenience. Although it is very expensive. There is too much to lose, everyone admits.

None of this should be surprising in the constant dance before the abyss. The Government and the internal cristicamporista opposition have agreed on something in recent days. Both have applied and launched measures that indicate that the strategy to combat inflation is to cause more inflation..

The expansive model of spending and consumption is the recipe that both adhere to, although not necessarily with the same measures. It may seem absurd, but it has some logic. Although the consequences can be catastrophic.

The insurmountable discussion for the increase in the rates of public services is the best example. Any solution at this point has negative effects. Political and economic. And nobody wants to face them.

It is the local consecration of what the Korean philosopher Byung Chul Hang llama “palliative policy”adopted in response to rejection or phobia of pain in postmodern societyaggravated by the pandemic.

“The palliative policy is not capable of having visions or carrying out deep reforms that could be painful (…) It is preferred to resort to analgesics, which have temporary effects and do nothing more than cover up the dysfunctions and systematic imbalances.”, says the author based in Germany.

Some Kirchnerist intellectuals tend to interpret Byung Chul Hang’s arguments in their favor, for proposing an agonistic rather than consensual policy, without noticing that the disputes promoted by his leadership have too much rhetoric and lack the viability and support to improve reality. Biases always prevail.

The recent proposals to create a universal basic salary or anticipate two updates to the minimum wage presented by the cristicamporismo, without having the resources to do so or foreseeing the consequences (not only with respect to compliance with the agreement with the IMF) are as extravagant as dollarization that promote from the other end of the crack. Texts without context.

The Government, in “moderate active resilience” mode, rejected the implementation of a universal salary, but with strictly political logic (and manifest structural weakness) it half-accepted the proposal of the Kirchnerist eldest son.

Thus, after having launched a kind of devalued IFE, it advanced one of the two basic income updates that should be made this year. Its central effect is verified in social assistance, in some salaries of subnational public administrations and, marginally, in certain informal sectors of the economy. For this reason, the search to moderate the majority impact on public accounts reaffirms the unstable balance to which Fernández is permanently obliged. The cristicamporismo always draws the bow and moves the tightrope, from the left and down.

In the economic team they try to relativize the effect that the disbursement of the approximately one billion pesos that the advance will cost will have. They assign a positive side to inflation, since it will finally end up liquefying that expenditure and other similar ones, such as salary increases in the public sector. Despite what it means for inflation to put more money on the street. The same occurs with the incentive to close parity for less time and more percentage that encourages the cristicamporismo.

Cristina Kirchner’s Vice Minister of Economy already warned about it. Emanuel Alvarez Agis He recalled this week in radio statements that, in a context of high inflation, the endless race of prices and wages usually ends in a clash with serious effects for everyone (or almost everyone). But the maximization of very short-term rent is the logic that permeates almost all the disputes. A very dangerous rationality.

The ruling party continues to dance in front of the abyss to the rhythm of the unusual, the absurd, the improvisation and the recklessness.