Since in 2014, the recovery of the Housing prices in Barcelona have grown 41% and in Madrid 36%. There are neighborhoods in both capitals where they have even reached a ceiling and the first signs of slowing are already visible, prices will only rise by 2020 by 3.2% national average and predict a change of cycle. This is stated in the report. Real Estate Sector Trends from Appraisal Society.
But the data collected by this firm, also confirm that while the evolution in these two cities is well above what would be appropriate based on Spanish macroeconomic data, the reality of the rest of the national territory is very different. "Except in these two cities, we do believe that the average housing prices in Spain are close to their equilibrium price," he says. Juan Fernández Aceytuno, CEO of Sociedad de Tasació
Each patient has his treatment ”
Based on this reality, Fernández Aceytuno has issued several warnings to the new Government. The first is that "take time to think and analyze the market and do a calm market analysis." In his opinion, the new Housing Law announced by the Minister of Transportation, Mobility and Urban Agenda during his inauguration, should avoid applying a “coffee for all” and define measures that help solve the problems of concrete in each territory.
“Bumping prices in certain areas of large cities may make sense, but doing so in Palencia, for example, makes no sense. What we do not believe is that a medicine works for the entire market and every patient has their treatment, ”says Juan Fernández Aceytuno.
Analyze beyond housing data
To make this analysis calm, the Government must first strive to know the exact data of the housing market. "It would be necessary to start by having a credible new housing census," says the director of the Appraisal Society. And with these data on the table also analyze other factors that influence the main problem of the sector that is the access of young people to this market. To do this, he proposes to confront it with labor regulation, tax incentives or legal certainty.
As for the concrete proposal to cap the rental price, he has reiterated the warning that beats throughout the real estate sector. “Anything that restricts the placing on the market of current empty homes that could be rented will have a negative effect. Prices will rise and the black market will be encouraged, ”he warned.
Reinforce yourself in a new crisis
The incentive to approach this study in a calm and global way is "very powerful", according to Fernández Aceituno. In his opinion it would be the best way for this Government will be equipped before the effects of a possible crisis both in the economic and real estate cycles that could jump very close to the end of the legislature in three or four years.
Among the measures that could be studied, it points to tax incentives to promote housing in areas adjacent to large cities, encourage telecommuting, control supply, but also take measures on demand.