Various calculation models and maps appear online that would show extreme cold. For example, someone writes on Twitter: “Sinterklaas is just a cold foretaste. The real freezer hit may follow later, under the direction of Groenland.”
The official KNMI plume also shows that the temperature in the weekend of December 10 can go towards -5 degrees. Weather fanatics predict that the following weekend may be much colder. “An increasing chance of freezing rain and snow. Like the winter of 1977,” someone writes.
Meteorologist Martijn Dorrestein of Buienradar also uses the KNMI plume. “You should actually see it in such a way that each line in that plume is a 2 percent chance. So there is a 2 percent chance of those outliers downwards, but the same applies to the outlier to 15 degrees.”
Extreme temperatures were also predicted last summer. Then it came to heat records of 45 degrees. Dorrestein then explained how meteorologists use different weather models:
Dorrestein does not expect the dreaded freezing cold for the time being. “There may be some freezing cold locally tonight, but then it will be just at or below freezing point. Until Saturday it will certainly remain above 0 degrees during the day. At night there is a chance of light frost, with a maximum of 3 degrees below 0. “
Snow with Sinterklaas?
During the Sinterklaas weekend there is a chance of frost, especially in the nights, but ‘nothing extreme’ according to Dorrestein. “It will snow in Germany, so there is a chance that some snow will fall here and there as well.”
And what about the long term? The further you look into the plume, the more unreliable it becomes. That is also the reason that meteorologists prefer not to give a forecast for more than a week in advance.
“For the time being, it seems that it will be slightly colder than average. That in itself is quite special, because we are often just above average, but that extreme cold? That really seems a bit exaggerated.”