The Bank of Spain warns that companies in the sectors most affected by the crisis will face a risk of insolvency due to the end of the grace periods for loans guaranteed by the State through the Official Credit Institute (ICO), something that will happen during this year.
In an analytical article, published this Tuesday, the banking supervisor points out that there has been a rebound in credits under special surveillance, especially in the sectors most affected by the crisis, which “shows the existence of latent risks for business solvency in the medium term”.
These risks, he points out, “could materialize, especially if the economic recovery were less vigorous than expected as a result, for example, of a possible escalation of tensions linked to the war in Ukraine.”
During 2021 and the elapsed part of 2022, a progressive recovery in the number of active companies has been observed.
The data provided by the Bank of Spain shows that in 2020 the number of active companies fell moderately (1.1% less) to 3,366,570, a more moderate cut than that observed during the financial crisis, which represented a fall 1.5% on average in the period 2008-2013.
This reduction due to the covid crisis affected practically all sectors, except transport and storage and information and communications, in which there was an increase, and it was more pronounced in the hospitality industry and in commerce, where they lost 3 % and 2% of companies, respectively.
By size, a generalized reduction was also observed, although with more intensity among small and medium-sized companies compared to micro and large companies.
RECOVERY OF THE BUSINESS FABRIC TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
However, both the companies registered with Social Security and the constitutions and dissolutions of commercial companies fell drastically during the months of confinement and subsequently recovered.
In May 2022, registered companies were already very close to pre-pandemic levels, while, for their part, incorporations and dissolutions have been above pre-crisis levels since the second quarter of 2021.
THE SOLVENCY INDICATORS SHOW A MODERATE DETERIORATION
The evolution of business solvency indicators also shows that up to now there has been a relatively moderate deterioration with respect to previous crises, although very heterogeneous by sector, something for which the public policies deployed during the crisis “could have been key”.
On the one hand, despite the insolvency moratorium in force until mid-2022, the number of company bankruptcy proceedings has increased since the third quarter of 2020, especially in the case of individual entrepreneurs and those concentrated in the sectors most affected by the crisis. , in particular the hospitality industry.
On the other hand, the amount of doubtful loans to companies has continued to decline, but at a more moderate rate, since 2020, although with a rebound in the sectors most affected by the crisis.
In loans under special supervision to companies, on the other hand, there has been an increase, more intense in the branches most affected by the crisis.
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