Bavaria to vote, bitter forecasts for Angela Merkel

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TO less than a resounding mistake, today Bavaria is meeting with History. The CSU, the party-state that governs it since 1962, lost in the regional parliament the absolute majority, that in 58 years the conservative sister of the CDU has always conquered, except on one occasion. Not only. The elections in the richest Land of Germany, followed two weeks later by those in Hesse, mark the beginning of a hot autumn that could once again jeopardize the stability of Angela Merkel's government and the leadership of the Chancellor in her party.

The latest polls give the Csu just 34%, a collapse compared to 47.7% in 2013. In second place would be the Greens, real surprise of the campaign, given to 19% from 8.6%. In free fall the SPD, which would go from 20.6% to 12%. The extreme right of AfD is on the rise, which with 10% would enter for the first time in the Landtag, and the Freien Whler, local training, also them at 10%. The crisis of the CSU, the announced success of the Greens and the future of Angela Merkel, stone guest of the match, are the three highlights of the elections bavaresthe.

Victim of a paradox, genuine discomfort of abundance, the Christian-social Union has made Bavaria a model Land – growth, full employment, widespread prosperity – but pays the bad management of the migrant theme. He pursued the Afd on the right, showing his hard face in Munich and Berlin, in an attempt to recover the favor of those who refuse the policy of welcoming Merkel. The result of losing consents both on the right and in the center, in favor of the Greens. The internal power struggle between the party leader and interior minister, Horst Seehofer and the minister-president, Markus Sder, did the rest. An electoral collapse would probably overwhelm both, but the most vulnerable seems to be Seehofer. If he were to resign as a minister, Merkel would lose the most riotous of the allies, the one that has almost overwhelmed the Grosse Koalition. Not saying that his successor would be more malleable. The pain threshold for Csu set at 35%. If they get past it, Seehofer and Sder could break it. The many undecided voters are their last hope.

Guided in Bavaria by Katharina Schulze, 33, strength of nature from the point of view of political and media talent, the Greens are i new kids on the block of German politics. If the polls see right, they could become the only option available to the CSU to continue to govern. It would be a problematic coalition, especially on the themes of Europe and migrants, where the Grnen are the only party that has never winked at the populists. But already in the talks for the Jamaica coalition, which went bankrupt by the liberals, the Greens had shown their determination to take responsibility for the government. One thing is certain, on the wave of the new relevance of ecological themes, the Greens are on their way to becoming Volkspartei, a popular party, at the expense of the SPD.

Bavaria only the first caudina fork of the Chancellor. A weakened Csu and looking for guilty would be an even more complicated ally to manage inside the Grosse Koalition, which will also face yet another defeat of the SPD, now fighting for survival. But if Christian Democrat Volker Bouffier were to lose the leadership of the Land on 28 October in Hessen, then Merkel would be under greater pressure inside his party. He said that he was recruited to the presidency of the CDU at the Congress of Hamburg in December. But if he loses Hesse, nothing will be safer. Not even for her.

October 13, 2018 (change October 13, 2018 | 21:17)

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