Monday, June 17, 2019
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Bavaria to vote, the future of Europe is also at stake

The end of the Csu domination makes the Merkel government tremble

The vote promises a disruption of the balance and risks causing an earthquake in Berlin, in addition to being potentially full of consequences also at European level

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer


Nine million Bavarian voters are called to the polls tomorrow for the renewal of the regional parliament. The vote promises a disruption of the balance and risks causing an earthquake in Berlin, in addition to being potentially full of consequences also at European level. Accustomed for over 60 years to robust absolute majorities in the powerful and populous Bavaria, the Christian-Social Union (Csu, affiliated to the CDU of Angela Merkel) seems to have little hope of reaching 40% of the votes, the 'rescue' threshold of the its electoral primacy. According to the polls, this mission is practically impossible, placing the Bavarian political cousins ​​of the Cdu to a devastating 33% of voting intentions. A vertical collapse that would result in serious trouble for the Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer, strong man from Bavaria now in trouble, but also for Chancellor Angela Merkel and ultimately for Europe.

Collapse Csu, great leap of the Greens
The populist right of Alternative for Germany (Afd) plans to capitalize after a campaign centered on the issue of migrants and filled with anti-Islamic rhetoric, in the Land that was the gate of entry for most of the migrants who entered Germany from mid-2014 , over 1.6 million. An absolute boom is not expected. But the polls promise AFD the debut in the Bavarian parliament with 12-13% of the votes, thus coming to be present in 15 of the 16 regional parliaments. The real electoral exploits expected is that of the Greens, the Gruene, data to 16 -18%, even 20%. If confirmed by the scrutiny, this data would decree the absolute victory of the Greens, together with the confirmation of the decline of the Social Democratic Party, the SPD, given 11%.

Seehofer risks a lot
The CSU has had an absolute majority in Bavaria since 1954, with one exception after the 2008 vote and in any case it has never fallen below 43% of the vote. This has always allowed the Bavarian leaders to have a lot of voice in Berlin and important places, not least that of the Minister of the Interior for Seehofer. He, however, has shaped much of the CSU policy ahead of tomorrow's vote, distancing itself from Merkel's 'welcoming' line on migrants, entering a collision course last summer with the Chancellor's CDU and the Social Democrats, bringing the country to the brink of a government crisis.

In addition to the migrants, Seehofer has launched disputes with the allies on the issue of motorway tolls for foreigners and the management of the dieselgate. Thus, tomorrow's vote also becomes a referendum on the head of the Interior, although he has tried to call himself out: "I did not interfere with the electoral campaign that remains a prerogative of Soeder (the Bavarian governor) and on the rejections of refugees at the border we agreed until August". Markus Soeder, former dolphin and former finance minister when Seehofer was governor, said that "the winds that pull across from Berlin" are the real ones responsible for the decline of the party in Bavaria. In short, if the CSU goes very bad tomorrow, one of the two will have to pay and the head of Seehofer could be the first to roll, both as party leader and as interior minister. Various analysts point out that this epilogue would be pleasing to Merkel, worn down by the conflict with Seehofer, especially on migrants. But the Chancellor also has good reasons to fear the Bavarian result.

The scenarios for alliances after the vote frighten Berlin and the EU
The SPD has been falling sharply for months, ballasted in the last surveys to 11-12%. Many Social Democratic votes have passed to the Greens, which would also be the choice of part of the conservative electorate, tired of the internal quarrels of the CSU and not in tune with the right movement of the policy on migrants.Charts that signal the possibility that the CSU should try an alliance with the Greens after the vote on Sunday. This option is appreciated by the majority of the Bavarians, according to the polls, but that would bring new instability for the central government of Berlin, where with great effort we reached the Grosse Koalition between Cdu and Spd.In alternative, the CSU may have to cede the scepter to Greens (who could try a coalition with the Social Democrats of the SPD, with the left of the Linke reduced to 5% of preferences and the liberals FDP, which could hope for a 6% of votes). Also in this case serious consequences are expected in Berlin. Another less evoked scenario is that of an unbalanced alliance on the right, the CDU together with Afd itself. Perspective, this, fearsome not only for Merkel but also for the EU: the rise of populists to the government in Bavaria would open to explosive alchemies at European level


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