One of the factors that led the board of directors Central Reserve Bank (BCR) to maintain interest rate of monetary policy in 2.75% was the lowest dynamism shown by economic activity in June and July.
In those months, the drop in production in the primary sectors – especially in fishing Y mining– led the economy to achieve growth below 3%.
For the central manager of Economic Studies of the monetary authority, Jorge Estrella, this cooling of the economy would be only temporary, since it expects that from August it will register a more dynamic evolution, before the recovery of the primary sectors.
"Everything leads us to think that in the fourth quarter we will have a GDP growth rate above the third quarter, with this our projection for the year remains at 4%," he said. Star.
According to the economist, fishing activity would present a greater dynamism between October and December, thanks to the start of the second season of capture of anchoveta. This is especially so because the campaign was shorter than usual last year, considering that it began at the end of November 2017.
Estrella also expects the mining and hydrocarbons sector to take a new turn, because production would no longer be affected by the maintenance of the Camisea pipeline. In addition, lot 192 operated by Frontera Energy would begin to produce at its maximum capacity.
DOUBLE DIGIT INVESTMENT
Another of the 'drivers' that would lead to boost the economy in the last quarter of the year would be the public investment. Estrella expects the execution of this investment to grow significantly due to the lower comparative base in the same period last year.
"In the fourth quarter of 2017 there was a kind of paralysis in the fiscal execution due to the political turbulence that generated the first attempt at a presidential vacancy; then, we started in this fourth quarter with a low base effect, which would give us a growth of public investment in more than two digits, "he said.
This dynamism of public investment it would help to increase the growth of the construction sector and also of services in the last quarter of the year.
Nevertheless, the external front looks less positive from the perspective of the BCR. Estrella said that the trade balance would have a smaller surplus than expected three months ago. This, he said, due to the decline in international prices of the main Peruvian export products.
With all this panorama, and given a global environment of greater uncertainty and risks, the BCR considers that it is not time to withdraw the foot of the accelerator in terms of monetary policy; that currently has a position as expansive as at the end of 2015.