Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko has so far not been directly involved in Vladimir Putin’s side in the war in Ukraine, but Lukashenko has allowed the Russians to use Belarusian territory to store forces and equipment.
In an update on Twitter on Monday, the British Ministry of Defense writes that special forces will be deployed along the border with Ukraine, along with air defense, artillery and missile forces.
The deployment is for training purposes, but the fact that they are deployed at the border will probably force Ukraine to deploy military forces along the border itself, the British Ministry of Defense analyzes.
Russia has also launched missile attacks on Ukraine from Belarus, according to Britain.
“Lukashenko is likely to balance his support for Russia’s invasion with the desire to avoid direct involvement and risk sanctions from the West,” the UK Department of Defense wrote in a statement. Twitter.
– Balances on a slack line
Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø believes the Belarusian president is balancing on a slack line.
Lukashenko has kept a low profile since the start of the invasion. He is trying to balance relations with Russia, while he does not seem to want to be directly involved in the conflict. The issuance of special forces along the border is probably just a game for the Kremlin in the hope of maintaining relations with Putin, Ydstebø told TV 2.
In addition to the fact that Belarus is dependent on Russia, and therefore wants to maintain a good relationship with Putin, it is a goal to avoid sanctions from the West and any counter-attacks from Ukraine.
– There have been relatively harmless signals from Belarus so far in the war. There is no reason to believe that Belarus will be directly involved in the war against Ukraine.
Do not think it affects Ukrainian forces
According to the British Ministry of Defense, the deployment of Belarusian special forces will weaken Ukraine’s defenses and force them to deploy military forces along the border with Belarus.
Ydstebø, on the other hand, believes that Ukraine remains relatively unaffected by Belarus’ deployment of special forces.
– Ukraine already has border guards in these areas. There is no reason to believe that Ukraine will use energy to relocate its forces, unless there is a danger that Russia will send forces to Belarus, but they probably do not have the capacity to do so, says Ydstebø.