He entered the political arena kicking doors. He did not disguise the expressions that for others would be restrained in the subconscious. He did not mind being described as a misogynist, racist, fascist or other adjectives. And so the former army captain Jair Messias Bolsonaro received the support of tens of millions of voters, 57.8 million to be exact. Now he is president of one of the 10 first world powers.
Moreover, the effect of the second continental power turning towards a radical right-wing regime is enhanced by the environment. In recent years and years, politicians more or less related to Bolsonaro have taken power in four South American countries. Chile, Argentina, Colombia and Paraguay are today presided over by businessmen and politicians of that tendency. Meanwhile only one Venezuela, lacerated by its worst historical crisis, and Bolivia are governed by regimes identified with 21st century socialism.
Less than five years ago, the stage was markedly different. It was so different that the festive encounters between leftist leaders, between hugs and smiles, became a habit, whether in Buenos Aires, Rosario, Sao Paulo, Asunción and even in the Bolivian Chapare. That memory, still fresh, sounds like another era in the face of the change that seems to have come as if from disenchantment rather than as an ideological turn. And so he understands more than one analyst.
"It's a kind of 'antisystemic' rebellion; that is to say, 'all outside because they do not represent us', already known among us in the 2000s, and that benefited the 'left' – explains the political scientist Jorge Lazarte -. But this time the basis of the rebellion is the corruption of 'all'. And what you want is to 'sweep' with everyone. The case of Brazil has revealed the deep antidemocratic drives. The left failed in the Government and is generating ungovernability from 'above'. "
AN ELECTORAL TURNOVER
Punishment, disappointment, resentment, spite and a long list of definitions have added the evaluations of the international media. The masses opted for rejection rather than for militancy and the turn came to each country with its respective nuances. "Before a political or ideological cycle or a fluctuation of continental structures, it is a change of electoral tendencies more or less selective," says analyst Roger Cortez. The example to understand this is Brazil. There, the rise of this character we saw several years ago. It is a profound reaction against a party that came under a tradition of the left. The electorate demonstrated against corruption, against the distortion of its ethical discourse, fundamentally, but not only of the Workers' Party (PT). There is a reaction against all the political professionals who have been devastated. "
The turn came also with an impact on Argentina in 2015, with the electoral victory of Mauricio Macri. While in Chile and Colombia, rightwing was relatively more harmonious because they share an institutional tradition in the respective political systems. Sebastián Piñera was re-elected, in the first case, and Iván Duque emerged as a young revelation of the Democratic Center party in front of always frustrated left forces. Something similar happened with Mario Abdo Benitez in Paraguay, figure of the traditional Colorado Party.
Cortez adds a causal, common in certain countries, that potentiates this change marked by the voters: "I do not see elements to speak of a ideological mutation of great depth, but in the countries where, after a critical economic situation, the left could enjoy of a decade of high income and wasted them. Of course, if free elections were held in Venezuela and Nicaragua, we would see how those types of regimes so similar to Bolivian are expelled. While Bolivia is evolving, at least, in terms of systemic putrefaction. "
BOLSONARO AND PIÑERA
Thus, on the boards, the chips began to reorder quickly. They did it even before the victory of Bolsonaro and, now, before his assumption of power. The new regimes slowed down from projects to institutions conceived or promoted in times of the governments calling themselves "socialist". The Union of South American Countries (Unasur), created in the days of Lula Da Silva and Hugo Chávez, failed to even release its headquarters. A building that cost 50 million dollars today serves as a hall for social festivities in Cochabamba.
That, before Bolsonaro. In recent days, the advisers of the President-elect of Brazil have advanced that the South American power may withdraw from Mercosur, the largest trade pact in the Southern Cone. The announcement received approval winks from Piñera's Chile. Both politicians are in favor of the bilateral pacts. "I admire Sebastián Piñera," said Bolsonaro, who will visit Santiago in the coming days. While Macri has blamed the pact to be "causing the accentuation of continental poverty."
Several experts in international relations, including the Argentine Pablo Seman and the American Michael Shifter, have advanced that bilateral pact policies will mark a rapprochement of several countries towards the US. "The United States is taking possession of what it has lost in Latin America, in a context of global struggle with China for natural resources, markets and political support," Seman told AFP. With President Donald Trump in the White House, "strong men have an advantage" in US foreign policy, Shifter said.
Thus, the South American political turn adds shocks and forecasts on several fronts. The evaluations speak, for example, about what Bolsonaro and Donald Trump could decide in relation to Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela. And what generates an overwhelming concern are the coincidences of Bolsonaro and Trump in relation to the planetary environment.
"Bolsonaro is a danger to humanity because of his threat to follow in Trump's footsteps with respect to the global climate agreement," says Cortez. His announcement that he intends to accelerate the processes of aggression against the Amazon, if materialized, will affect the planet. "
THE NEW NEIGHBOR
And the new time appears with particular clouds over a particular country. His Government does not have relations with the Chilean and adds growing and diverse differences with the Argentine. Now he expects the most threatening Brazilian politician in at least five decades to swear to the Presidency. What can happen in Bolivia in the time of Bolsonaro and a majority environment of regimes markedly antagonistic to that of Evo Morales?
"Bolivia seems to be the exception, in this panorama of 'rederechización' – explains Lazarte-. But the ingredients of a 'model' crisis are already present to cease to be the exception and will probably soon explode, both because of the extension and because the new governments will no longer be as 'brothers' with gas. "
In the bilateral relationship, the Bolivia-Brazil agenda awaits with explosive issues: a new agreement for gas exports, the main Bolivian business; the unstoppable expansion of drug trafficking, environmental problems and infrastructure megaprojects.
"There are at least three flanks that from Brazil will have a hard follow-up on the Government of Evo Morales – says Cortez -: having enlarged the surface of coca plants, a few months ago, was described in Brazil as an unfriendly gesture and it is likely that the regime Bolsonaro increased the pressure by accusing him of being linked to criminal gangs. Another aspect will be the increase in Amazonian predation and its effects on Bolivian glaciers. Third, large projects, such as the bioceanic train, enter a phase of freezing and question. It also opens the question about the construction of the Chepete dam, whose cost would double Bolivian external debt, and the intention of the Morales regime to export electricity to Brazil. "
Jair Messias Bolsonaro will swear to the presidency on January 1, 2019 to answer the questions.