Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Home World Cepal estimates that during 2018 the economic contraction in Venezuela will be...

Cepal estimates that during 2018 the economic contraction in Venezuela will be 12%


Mexico City.- Latin America will grow 1.5 percent this year, down from the 2.2 percent estimated in April, according to the forecast released in Mexico City by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

"This is the product of downward revisions of countries of important size in the region such as Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela", ECLAC pointed out in its "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018".

While Venezuela will have an economic contraction of 12 percent, for Argentina a negative growth of -0.3 percent is anticipated after an increase of gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.9 percent in 2017.

For Brazil, growth of 1.6 percent is anticipated compared to the one percent of the previous year, while the outlook for Mexico is a growth of 2.2 percent compared to the two percent of the previous year.

The trends in the region are not homogeneous. As some countries had downward revisions, projections for countries such as Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, Colombia and Peru improved and others remained almost unchanged.

The countries with the highest growth will be the Dominican Republic and Panama with 5.4 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.

The secretary general of the agency, Alicia Bárcena, said in presenting the report that there is a generally positive trend in the development of the region, in an international context that ECLAC considers "marked by uncertainty and volatility," said DPA.

"Our region continues to grow, although at a slower rate than projected a few months ago, despite the international turbulence, which is positive but urges us to redouble our efforts to generate a reactivation, without falling into excessive fiscal adjustments", he claimed.

The report notes that regional growth occurs "in a complex global scenario," among other causes of trade conflicts between the United States, China and other nations, a fall in capital flows to emerging markets, the depreciation of currencies against the dollar and a lesser dynamism of the world economy.

"The economic activity in South America as a subregion will go from a growth of 0.8 percent in 2017 to one of 1.2 percent in 2018," estimated ECLAC.

Central America as a subregion, covering Costa Rica, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic, will have the same growth rate of 2017, of 3.4 percent.

"The losses of dynamism of Honduras, Nicaragua and, to a lesser extent, Panama are offset by the acceleration of the Dominican Republic," the document said.

The economies of the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean will show a positive growth rate of 1.7 percent after stagnating a year earlier.

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