Chile: what was the result of the first poll on the way to ballotage

Presidential candidates Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast will meet in the ballotage on December 19

Chile’s presidential race is in its final weeks. On December 19, the ballotage will be held on whose ballot will appear the standard-bearer of the Radical Party, José Antonio Kast, and the broad frontist Gabriel Boric. In this stage, A first survey was conducted after the first round in which both candidates appear in a technical tie, with 39% of the preferences. The public poll also showed that 22% of those consulted do not know who to vote for or chose not to answer.

Despite the fact that the polls had been harshly questioned in previous polls, for the first round their results were close to what happened at the polls. Cadem, as well as other polls, had been criticized after the results of the presidential primaries, where they gave Boric himself and the official standard-bearer Sebastián Sichel as winners. Instead, for the first electoral round, the results were much closer to what was projected by opinion studies.

In the survey, men and women aged 18 years and over, inhabitants of the 16 regions, participated from the country.

The study also found that the approval of President Sebastián Piñera rose slightly to 18%, while the rejection of his management fell to 78%. Regarding the cabinet, the approval remained at 21%, while the disapproval of the ministerial team reached 73%. Undersecretary Paula Daza continues to be the best evaluated, with 77% approval.

The turnaround of the polls

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The public polls had been questioned for not projecting the results that the votes ultimately gave. This time, however, the projections for the first round were close to what happened at the polls, because they announced a close scenario before the ballotage. In fact, the company had planned 29% support for the Republican and 27% for the deputy for Magellan. According to data from the Electoral Service, Servel, the results were 27.91% for Kast and 25.83% for Boric.

According to the survey firm, the survey “correctly anticipated the first round scenario”, correcting that both candidates would contest the presidential race and the order in which they would remain this Sunday, as well as that there would be “a statistical tie between (Franco) Parisi, (Sebastián) Sichel and (Yasna) Provoste”, as happened last Sunday.

Analysts point out that the candidates must target the voters of the center before the second presidential round
Analysts point out that the candidates must target the voters of the center before the second presidential round

Regarding the key issues of the campaigns of both candidates, the voters were defined by the representative of the Christian Social Front. Kast is a 55-year-old lawyer and Republican Party candidate, obtained almost 28% of the votes with a speech of “peace, order, progress and freedom”.

Kast’s campaign speech was based on restoring “tranquility” to Chile that a sector felt lost after the Social Outbreak, from which numerous and massive demonstrations have been registered, in which more than 30 people have died, innumerable protesters with eye loss and hundreds of injured. In addition, repeatedly accused Boric and his Communist Party allies of being the cause of “instability” with his presidential project.

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On the other side is Gabriel Boric, Deputy for his native Magallanes, 35-year-old former student leader and candidate of the Approve Dignity alliance, which brings together the Broad Front and the Communist Party. The parliamentarian It got second place with just over 25% of the preferences by identifying with the social protest registered as of October 18, 2019 against social inequality and seeking a new country model.

The leftist pointed out that his project is “transformative, serious and responsible” and that it “ensures the best quality of life for all Chileans.” He has also taken charge of popular demonstrations, asserting in his speech after the first round that “We do not go out to the streets so that everything remains the same.”

Analysts agree that, facing the ballot, both candidates must moderate their speeches to attract the center voter before the second round. Whoever wins this presidential election will take over when Sebastián Piñera leaves the Palacio de la Moneda, which will happen in March 2022.

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