One of the great curiosities of each preseason is to recognize the value that so many people are using at an NCAA tournament last year. Combine this with a solid recurrent core group, and the expectations shoot straight through the roof when they probably should not.
Take a pair of teams that surprised at Elite Eight gigs last year.
Kansas State went 25-12, but everyone remembers that the Wildcats Creighton, UMBC and especially Kentucky were dismissed before they were beaten in the final of the South Region of Loyola Chicago. It should be noted that K-State won these games largely without striker Dean Wade (he came off the bench in the Kentucky game).
Also noteworthy: The team of Bruce Weber was a 0-7 against Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia, the top league of the Big 12. (It was 11-2 against the rest of the league, so it is in the ranking it was clear ). It was a solid top 30 band and has almost everyone back. You may also wonder how much hype the wildcats would produce if they had lost one or two games in March.
State of Florida is similar. The Seminoles went from 11pm to 12pm, but by the end of the regular season, they had split into two teams: one that usually went well in Tallahassee and one that did not shy away from it in February and early March: A 15- Points defeat at Notre Dame (without Bonzie Colson). A 20-point router at the N.C. State. A setback of 13 points at Clemson. And an eight-point setback against Louisville in the ACC tournament, in which they made up 26 points in the last 12 minutes.
But thanks to the deep Seminoles: They beat Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga before they lost to Michigan in the final of the West Region. A big part of their big cast is back, too.
Both are capable teams, both should be better than in the regular season of last year and both could easily find each other in March of the second tournament of the weekend. (Both played low non-conference schedules between 2017 and 18, partly explaining why they were # 9.)
Nevertheless, it feels as if three games in March are overvalued, while both teams are upgraded. Preseason is the only time brackets projection is not a (or fully) data-driven exercise. The state of Florida and the state of Kansas will be fine, but there are probably a few seed lines lower than it is in the preseason.
(1) Midwest Vs. (4) West; (2) South vs. (3) East
(1) BIG 12 / Kansas vs. (16) BIG SOUTH / Radford
(8) ATLANTIC 10 / St. Joseph's vs. (9) Vanderbilt
Salt Lake City
(5) Marquette Vs. (12) SUMMIT / South Dakota State
(4) Clemson Vs. (13) BIG SKY / Montana
(3) BIG TEN / Michigan State vs. (14) IVY / Harvard
(6) Florida State Vs. (11) MID-AMERICAN / Buffalo
(7) Washington vs. (10) Texas
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) ATLANTIC SUN / Lipscomb
There is a pretty good chance Kansas gets a Tulsa-Kansas City-Minneapolis way to the Final Four, especially if the Jayhawks win the regular season's Big 12 again. … Vanderbilt was not very good last year. Freshmen Darius Garland and Simi Shittu will ensure that this is not a problem this year. … Not sure if there is a better bet than State of South Dakota to win a league with a bid, except perhaps Gonzaga. The Summit League will be happy when the Jackrabbits say goodbye to Mike Daum after this season. …
Harvard and Penn look like the top teams in the Ivy League. Fortunately for the Crimson, they do not have to defeat the Quakers at Penn's home game to win the league this year. The Ivy tournament will be relocated to Yale in March. … Washington vs Texas would be a pretty good Fiesta Bowl and a great Alamo Bowl this season. … Could not help but pair Tennessee with an in-state enemy, even though the game must be more than 300 miles from Knoxville.
Salt Lake City
(1) WEST COAST / Gonzaga Vs. (16) BIG WEST / California State Fullerton-SWAC / Arkansas-Pine Bluff
(8) Xavier Vs. (9) N.C. State
(5) Kansas State Vs. (12) Notre Dame / Southern Cal
(4) Mississippi State Vs. (13) SUN BELT / Georgia State
(3) BERG WEST / Nevada vs. (14) WESTERN ATHLETIC / New Mexico State
(6) Purdue vs. (11) Alabama
(7) AMERICAN ATHLETIC / Cincinnati. (10) Davidson
(2) Duke Vs. (15) SOUTHERN / Wofford
I give GonzagaThe exceptional squad is currently in doubt for the doubt, but Killian Tillie will miss up to eight weeks with a tension fracture in his ankle. This covers the part of the timetable for which the bulldogs can prove that they justify high seed. … Xavier never go too far, consider this as a vote of confidence. … Mike Brey talked a lot about this offseason Notre DameThe story of expectation that expectations are exceeded if He is right. T.J. Gibbs and Rex Pflueger are at the heart of a team that should not be overlooked ….
There is so much to like NevadaThis was already a nightly treat before there were some wild rallies in the NCAA tournament. Now the wolf pack is deep. Caleb Martin is a potential American of the first team. … I have a creeping suspicion Purdue not drop as much as many believe, with Carsen Edwards still nearby. … Cincinnati vs Davidson would be a great contrast in styles. … duke to play a team from South Carolina in South Carolina. Where did we hear that before?
(1) SOUTHEASTERN / Kentucky vs. (16) PATRIOT / Colgate-NORTHEAST / Saint Francis (Pa.)
(8) TCU vs. (9) Butler
(5) Syracuse vs. (12) Houston-Saint Louis
(4) Michigan vs. (13) HORIZON / Northern Kentucky
(3) PAC-12 / Oregon vs. (14) SOUTHERNLAND / Stephen F. Austin
(6) Florida vs. (11) Nebraska
(7) providence vs. (10) Iowa State
(2) North Carolina Vs. (15) AMERICA EAST / Hartford
Stanford's transfer Reid Travis was one of the best additions every team made. Kentucky Last year, he had an experienced interior presence behind him, which happened to be a first PAC-12 plectrum. … What to do TCU Coach Jamie Dixon and servant have in common? You can rely on both to figure out how the 68 field becomes a very large percentage of the time. … SyracuseThe projection probably depends more on one player than on the other. The ceiling of the orange is much higher, Tyus Battle is back in the fold. …
Someone from the Pac-12 will probably end up with a seed # 3 or # 4, and Oregon probably has the best chance. … Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, but this team has the potential to finally end this drought. … an America East team in front of an ACC power? Once again? Seriously, you have to pay attention Hartfordwho can reach the tournament for the first time.
(1) ATLANTIC COAST / Virginia vs. (16) MID-EASTERN / Bethune-Cookman
(8) Wisconsin Vs. (9) Central Florida
(5) Louisiana State Vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA / Marshall
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) COLONIAL / Northeast
(3) Auburn Vs. (14) METRO ATLANTIC / Iona
(6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) UCLA
(7) Indiana Vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY / Loyola Chicago
(2) BIG EAST / Villanova vs. (15) OHIO VALLEY / Belmont
Virginia The ACC will probably not be as dominated as it was a year ago, but this is still a very capable team. De'Andre Hunter could be a figurehead of a program well equipped to shake off the previous NCAA exit from last year and shake off another season with 30 wins. … a significant leap for Tremont Waters and LSU, … Yes, Western Kentucky is increasingly talented and has been selected to win the Conference USA, but it's hard not to like it MarshallAbility to control the Elorability of Jon Elmore and C.J. Burks use. …
I knocked Virginia tech with Chris Clarke's indefinite suspension. … UCLA injured four players and was terribly unstable last year. Caution may be required when assessing the Bruins. … Indiana has a chance to make a splash in Archie Miller's second season. Romeo Langford's arrival is an important factor. … defending champion Villanova Maybe not quite as impressive as last year, but it will still be alright. A fifth consecutive season with 30 wins is plausible.
Telephone conference: Atlantic Coast (9), Southeast (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (4), American Athletic (3), Atlantic 10 (3)
Ten others to watch out for: Arizona, Arizona, Baylor, Boston College, Illinois, Maryland, Memphis, Miami, St. Johns, Western Kentucky
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