Dusseldorf The Covid 19 pandemic is burdening economic life in Germany in a way that few could have imagined three months ago. The German economy was abruptly slowed down. The federal government expects a deep recession. According to the current forecast, the gross domestic product will be 6.3 percent lower than last year.
This will also affect the real estate market.
Analysts are therefore monitoring the situation closely: The Hamburg-based analysis firm F + B has developed a separate corona index for residential properties. It has shown the development of housing supply, prices and rents on a weekly basis since the beginning of March.
The most important result of the current evaluation shows: The prices of condominiums prove to be surprisingly robust. F + B Managing Director Bernd Leutner explains this as follows: “Suppliers obviously do not see a need to stimulate purchase demand with reduced offer prices.”
The current Europace house price index, which is based on transaction data, confirms the finding: in April, residential real estate even rose slightly by 0.7 percent.
Jan Sprengnetter, head of the eponymous provider of valuation software for real estate companies and financiers, comes to a similar conclusion. The latest evaluation of housing offers and the valuation carried out by banks showed that “the residential property market has not only recovered on the supply side, but also on the financing side,” observes Sprengnetter.
According to the F + B Index, the nationwide decline in supply at the beginning of April increased by 30 percent in early May to 85 percent of the pre-crisis level. In the seven German metropolises even 90 percent. The offer prices are even better: In no single week did they fall below the level at the beginning of March nationwide. In the meantime, they are even almost three percent nationwide above the level of nine weeks ago.
Jan Sprengnetter is therefore convinced that no short- to medium-term price reductions for residential properties can be derived from the previous data. The research institute Empirica had previously forecast reductions of ten to 25 percent.
“We will feel the effects in transaction numbers and prices,” says Sprengnetter. However, the further development is related to the general economic effects of the corona crisis. And these can currently hardly be estimated reliably.
So it seems that waiting for both sellers and buyers is not a bad strategy.
More: Many experts expect the real estate market in Germany to cool down