The number of cases has been progressively evolving over the past two weeks, but this Thursday there was less variation from day to day than the previous ones. Since March 11th, the daily variation in Portugal has always exceeded 30 percent, having even reached 51 percent between Friday and Saturday, March 13th and 14th.
In the remaining days, the variation was always above 30 percent, reflecting a greater identification of cases from day to day. In numerical terms, Wednesday was the day with the highest increase in confirmed cases, from 448 to 642 cases in just 24 hours.
There are now 785 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Portugal, 143 more cases than on Wednesday. However, the exponential curve that governs most mathematical studies predicted that 900 cases would be exceeded today.
Although this Thursday’s variation – of just 22 percent – may signal a positive sign of slowing down, it may also be correlated with the number of tests that are done and what is their territorial and population reach, as well as the time that virus takes time to manifest itself.
In the last two days, several test centers were opened in the cities of Lisbon, Cascais, Porto and Gaia, which aim to massify the diagnosis and reach more suspicious cases.
In addition, the Directorate-General for Health itself admitted this Thursday, during the daily press conference, that thousands of Portuguese may be infected, but still without symptoms.
Another contradictory scenario of a positive reading of the most recent data was outlined this Thursday by the National School of Public Health.
In a study based on mathematical models to predict what will happen in Portugal in the coming days, ENSP estimates that, on average, for every 100 cases of Covid-19 in Italy, there are seven cases in Portugal.
“Currently, the analysis of these models tells us that all curves, at the stage we are in and regardless of the country analyzed, are exponential (or similar), that is, they have a markedly increasing evolution. The Portuguese curve follows the same path, at its scale, comparing with similar periods in other countries ”, he stressed, in statements to the Lusa agency.
The study also predicts that there will be 30 new cases in Portugal per 100 in Spain.
According to the researchers, Portugal is following the curves of other countries, but at different scales.
However, Carla Nunes stressed that the country could move away from a forecast that would be catastrophic for Portugal, avoiding the contact rate and thus lowering the transmission rate.
“Compared to other countries, Portugal took measures to promote social isolation earlier and were apparently well adopted by the Portuguese population, according to the media,” noted the director of ENSP.
Variation since March 4, day when newsletters started to be published daily:
March 4 – six confirmed cases
March 5 – nine cases – 50% change
March 6 – 13 cases – 44%
March 7 – 21 cases – 61%
March 8 – 30 cases – 42%
March 9 – 39 cases – 30%
March 10 – 41 cases – 5%
March 11 – 59 cases – 43%
March 12 – 78 cases – 32%
March 13 – 112 cases – 43%
March 14 – 169 cases – 51%
March 15 – 245 cases – 44%
March 16 – 331 cases – 35%
March 17 – 448 cases – 35%
March 18 – 642 cases – 43%
March 19 – 785 cases – 22%