Covid: Sebastiani (Cnr), all the growing curves – Physics & Mathematics

I am growing in Italy all curves relative all’epidemia di Covid-19, including that of deaths. This is indicated by the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).

“As noted last week, from 12-14 days ago there has been a growth trend in the curves of total positives, the percentage of positives in molecular tests and daily admissions to intensive care; for about a week – says Sebastiani – yes notes a growth trend, albeit slight, in the death curve “. According to the expert “the increase of tests due to the obligation of the Green pass does not provide the main contribution to the growth of the curves, since we also see it on the percentage of positive in molecular tests, on daily admissions to intensive care and on deaths“.

Sebastiani’s calculations also indicate that “before the minimum of the average curve of the incidence of total positives, located on 11 October, the curve decreased linearly, but starting from 26 September the rate of decrease had decreased compared to previous weeks”. The mathematician also notes that “this slowdown in the descent took place 12 days after the start of school activity (September 14), when the vaccination coverage of the 0-19 age group was also lower than the current value, albeit not high, equal to about 29% “.

Last year, he continues, “a similar phenomenon occurred, but at the beginning of school activity the curve was growing linearly and after about 14 days it went to exponential growth. This year, however, at the beginning of school activity , the curve went down linearly and the effect of vaccines must also be considered: all this led to an inversion of the trend from decrease to growth of the curve after about 27 days from the beginning of school “.

Analysis indicates that in 17 regions the incidence in the last seven days is higher than that of the previous seven days and, at the same time, the analysis of the weekly percentage differences shows a growth trend. The regions are: Abruzzo, where the incidence is 25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, autonomous province of Bolzano (84), Friuli Venezia Giulia (56), Veneto (49) Umbria (43), Sicily and Tuscany (41), province autonomous of Trento (40), Campania, Emilia Romagna and Lazio (38), Piedmont (34), Marche (33), Liguria (29), Lombardy (25), Puglia (22), Molise (14).

The curves of the epidemic growing in 3 out of 4 European countries
In three out of four European countries the curves of the incidence of positives for the Covid-19 epidemic are growing, and in Bulgaria and Russia for six weeks the growth has been exponential: this is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘M. Picone’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“The Bulgaria and the Russia I’m in the process of exponential growth with doubling times of the increases of about 5 and 17 days respectively, but for Russia the observation interval is not long enough with respect to the estimated doubling time to have a good estimate accuracy “, Sebastiani observes.
Only nine countries, he adds, do not show a growth trend: “Kosovo has a decreasing trend, as well as Montenegro and Serbia, where however the decrease is slowing down. In Lithuania, Finland and Turkey the curve is decreasing after reaching from a little higher, as Belarus seems to be preparing to do. Sweden – continues the mathematician – is almost in a phase of stasis, with a very slow decrease, and Slovenia, after a marked decline, has risen for a short time, reaching a maximum and recently decreases again “.
Sebastiani finally notes that “in the first 15 places by incidence there are 13 states of a block that goes from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, affecting almost the entire Balkan peninsula”.

Below is the list of incidence values ​​in all European countries: Serbia, with an incidence of 442 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, Great Britain (440), Lithuania (397), Montenegro (396), Estonia (389) , Latvia (377), Romania (368), Bulgaria (343), Slovenia (330), Ireland (275), Moldova (273), Croatia (267), Slovakia (266), Ukraine (253), Turkey (239) , Austria (210), Belgium (206), Greece (195), Holland (164), Russia (159), Belarus (150), Czech Republic (134), Luxembourg (133), Iceland (128), Macedonia (125 ), Bosnia and Albania (117), Germany (110), Denmark (102), Hungary (97), Switzerland (86), Poland (66), Norway (65), Finland (64), France (50), Portugal (47), Sweden (39), Italy (33), Spain (28), Kosovo (5).