CPALL shows a profit of 1.7 billion baht, a decline of 25% – in the year ’21 still slow to recover

“CP All (CPALL)” will announce its operating results on February 22, the Guru expects Q4 / 63 profit of 3,800-4.6 billion baht, down 25-37.8%. 1.6-1.7 billion baht, down 22.70-25% affected by the slowdown in purchasing power in the country. As for the outlook for the year ’64, earnings still recover more slowly

The reporter reported that CP All Public Company Limited or CPALL will report 4Q20 and FY20 results on Feb. 22, with analysts forecasting a profit of 3,800- 4,600 million baht, down 25-37.8% compared with Q4 / 19, resulting in the full year 63 profit of 1.6-1.7 billion baht, down 22.70-25% from year ’19 while the trend in the year ’20 is expected to recover. Gradually With a forecast of profit at 1.8-2 billion baht

*** Broke expects a weak 4Q20 profit

Securities company (Securities Company) KGI (Thailand) expects CPALL’s net profit in Q4 / 63 to be 4,600 million baht, a 25% drop compared to Q4 / 19, resulting in a full year 2020 net profit of 17 billion. Baht, down 23% year-on-year, with the lower profit coming from Travel restrictions for foreign tourists Consumers shop with caution during unfavorable economic conditions. And did not benefit from government spending stimulus campaigns It is expected to increase incentives for consumers to purchase products from local stores more, it is expected that same-store sales (SSSG) in Q4 / 63 will be negative 16% compared to Q4 / 19, making it expected for the full year of 63. That would be negative 14%.

Asia Wealth Securities expects CPALL performance in 4Q20 to remain weak, with net profit expected to be 4,105 million baht, down 33% while the full year ’20 net profit of 16,634 million baht is due to the number of tourists. That decreased when compared with the same period of the previous year. From the spread of the COVID-19 virus Including the weak purchasing power of consumers

It is also expected that half of the projects will have a negative impact on the company. As more consumers turn to shopping in traditional trade stores, however, in 4Q20 it is expected that the company will begin to recognize profit sharing from Tesco 113 million baht.

Asia Plus Securities expects a net profit of 3,800 million baht, a 37.8% drop compared to the same period of last year, from SSSG, down 18% due to travel impact. Slow recovery And some of the money was drawn to other stores From the measure for each half, resulting in the year 2020 the net profit is expected to be over 16,000 million baht, so it still recovered slower than expected

Yuanta Securities expects CPALL profit in 4Q20 to be 3,900 million baht, a 35% drop in view of the COVID-19 epidemic. Also the main effect In addition, Thailand had an outbreak in the second round, affecting the overall picture. It is expected that the company had revenues of approximately 131,000 million baht, a decrease of 7% compared to the same period last year. Products with a good margin, such as beverages, cosmetics and fresh food, sell less, but the results do not include the main impact of the purchase of Tesco Lotus, which concluded the deal on December 18. 63

While Nomura Pattanasin Securities sees CPALL’s Q4 / 63 net profit of 4,000 million baht, a 35% decrease in line with the economy and the new round of COVID-19 drag SSSG’s convenience store, which is 57% of sales, is worse. -17.5% from -14.3% in Q3 / 63, while the year ’16 outlook is slow to recover. This reflects the slow recovery of convenience store SSSG and increased Tesco deal costs. However, the company sees CPALL’s performance bottomed out.

Securities

Expected Q4 / 63 profit

(Million baht)

Expected 20-year profit

(Million baht)

Expected 64 years profit

(Million baht)

Target price

(Baht / share)

KGI Securities 4,600 17,000 18,044 62
Yuanta Securities 3,989 16,713 18,006 77.5
Phillip Securities 4,484 16,950 18,960 75
Asia Wealth Securities 4,105 16,634 20,651 76
Asia Plus Securities 3,800 17,256 19,117 74

*** Looking at the 64 performance still slow to recover

KGI Securities believes that CPALL trend in the year ’20 is expected to recover at a slower rate. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand, the estimate of the number of foreign tourists this year has been reduced to 8 million from 14 million, including a weak economy. Including the indirect impact of government spending stimulus measures And the number of foreign tourists decreasing Therefore, CPALL’s SSSG is expected to be under pressure. Especially in the first half of this year. Therefore, the SSSG assumption is lowered by 1-2%, which leads to a 3-7% adjustment in the net profit forecast, expecting the net profit to be 18,044 million baht.

In addition, the company has lowered its target price for the year-end of 64 down from Bt62 to Bt67, based on the same PER of 31x, although the company believes its operating results will recover. But the recovery rate will be slower than other stocks in the sector, with a view to still recommend HOLD and a good time to look back on CPALL stocks is the second half of this year.

Phillip Securities (Thailand) expects CPALL’s annual net profit of 18,960 million baht, with factors that need to be monitored, namely government programs that gradually help people affected by COVID-19. Will put pressure on income Since the company did not participate While plans to open a franchise in Cambodia and Lao PDR More clarity is expected after a delay from the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This will be a plus for expanding customer base. While the extension of the branch contract in the OR gas station for the second round for another 10 years is a positive issue. And obtaining approval to purchase Tesco Lotus in Thailand and Malaysia Even causing a high level of debt But it will be positive for the market leader in the long term.

Asia Plus Securities believes that CPALL’s net profit will be 19,117 million baht, with the view that 1Q21 still sees pressure from the new round of COVID-19, while in 2Q21 it is expected to remain Gradual from low baseline results and vaccination That will help promote consumption and tourism recovery In the long term, the company still liked CPALL fundamentally the most in the group. From high stability Various retail channels Able to build more business opportunities And still recommend a long-term investment With a target price of 74 baht

Asia Wealth Securities has forecast that CPALL will have a net profit in the year ’21 of 20,651 million baht, recommend buying with a target price of 76 baht, based on a 33x PER, with the view that the business will still be under pressure in the short term. Due to the new coronavirus outbreak, the company still has strength from multiple sales channels. Expanding customer base in Cambodia and Laos Tesco’s profit share that will support long-term results

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