Direct. Legislative 2022: the news of June 1

Very favorable to the left, will young people be able to tip the scales in the legislative elections? “The more recent the generations, the more they have ‘left’ values”, underlines, in a note published on Wednesday, the director of the Observatory of the opinion of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, Antoine Bristielle. And the voting intentions for June are favorable to him: 59% of 18-24 year olds and 44% of 25-34 year olds would vote for the rally of the left (Nupes), against respectively 13% and 23% for the presidential majority ( 13% and 20% for the RN), according to a Cluster 17 poll.

In the 2017 legislative elections, only 27% of 18-30 year olds

But young people are particularly abstentionists. “This thus creates a paradoxical situation for the left: if it is largely in the lead among young people, the latter does not constitute its main voice reserve”, notes Antoine Bristielle. Thus, in April, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon was largely in the lead among 18-24 year olds, (but) the latter only represent 14% of voters who voted for him”he continues.

The phenomenon is even more significant in the legislative elections. In 2017, “only 27% of 18-30 year olds voted, while 71% for 18-24 and 66% for 25-29 took part in the election of the President of the Republic”recalls the abstention specialist, Céline Braconnier.

And the participation gap with the other age groups is generally greater in this election. In 2017 he was “between the age category that votes the least, the 25-29 year olds, and the one that votes the most, the 65-69 year olds”of « 18 points » for the presidential and “around 35 points” for the legislative elections, underlines the director of Sciences-Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye. The influence of youth on the elections is thus reduced.

What generate momentum?

But, while this election is usually seen as a “confirmation of the presidential election”, “the current situation differs on several points”notes Antoine Bristielle, pointing “an electoral balance of power which does not seem to be, at least nationally, completely favorable to the newly re-elected president”. And this, because of the “politicization of the ballot” by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who claims to be targeting Matignon, and of the union of the left, “still unthinkable a few weeks ago”.

What generate momentum? While they are to him “structurally favorable”the « mobilisation massive » young people is in any case a key issue for Nupes, underlines the researcher, otherwise it would have “a very small chance of winning”.