At all times, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, maintained that he will only make a proposal that is “sustainable” over time, that is, that allows the recovery of the Argentine economy as well as facing debt commitments.
This supposes a “substantial effort” on the part of the private creditors according to the words of the International Monetary Fund in its analyzes on the Argentine indebtedness, a proposal that constitutes an accolade to the position of the Argentine Government.
The problem is that this type of proposal involves a significant discount in the value of the debt and a waiting period (3/4 years?) Before the creditors can start to collect, a scheme that is anticipated on Wall Street. , at least initially it will be rejected.
A key date will be next April 22 when the country will face maturities of just over $ 500 million for coupons for bonds governed by foreign law (global 2021, 2026 and 2046). There is speculation that Argentina could decide not to pay on that date and take the 30-day grace period it has to force an agreement – against the clock – within that period.
If there are no changes in the official strategy, it is considered that within those thirty days the official leadership – and especially President Alberto Fernández – will decide whether to fall into default – with the additional argument derived from the crisis caused by the coronavirus – or if, as was done on previous occasions, you will reach an agreement at the last moment.