Although it still takes almost two years for the next elections, analysts consulted by EL HERALDO consider that the political race for the Presidency of the Republic of 2022.
For the political scientist and professor at the Universidad del Norte Ángel Tuirán “the latest movements of important actors on the Colombian political scene indicate that, despite the fact that the pandemic is far from over, the race for the presidency of the Republic is beginning.”
Tuirán explained that the progressive sectors, apparently, seek to position their strongest candidates for a possible consultation to choose a single candidate. However, he noted, this consultation would not include Gustavo Petro, the leader of Colombia Humana and former presidential candidate who “fought” the second presidential round with the current president, Iván Duque.
For his part, the doctor in Political Science and professor at the Universidad del Atlántico Alejandro Blanco pointed out that, unlike the previous elections, the political organizations of the center and left will probably have several candidates.
“For example, names like Camilo Romero, Jorge Robledo or Francia Márquez sound like. The latter shows that the alternatives are as diverse as their slogans ”.
In fact, a recent movement took place in the Alternative Democratic Pole, with the split of several militants, especially Senator Jorge Robledo, one of the most visible figures of this community.
This Wednesday, Robledo, in the company of other former activists of the Polo, presented Dignidad, a new political party that is already completing its legal process in the National Electoral Council to obtain legal status.
“We are newborns with an absolutely unitary vocation and we will be summoning all the people who do not feel represented by the traditional parties to join us, ”said Leonidas Gómez, who will preside over the community.
As vice president of Dignidad, former representative Alba Luz Pinilla will take over, who was the author of laws such as equal marriage and mental health.
Regarding his split from the Polo, and that of the rest of his co-supporters, he stated: “We left without a fight and without resentment, because this is what corresponds to us in history: a new hope that includes all sectors and continues to build a left-wing model without personalism and strengthens Colombian industry.
Although Robledo, since January of this year, had expressed to the Polo his intention to be a presidential candidate, he specified that Dignidad has not yet chosen who will be his presidential candidate. Therefore, although he did not rule out an eventual candidacy, He denied that the newly created political party was intended to nominate him as the next presidential candidate.
Meanwhile, he limited himself to detailing the slogans of the new party, which does not rule out a possible union with the Polo in the face of the 2022 elections, as well as with other forces and leaderships without a party that agree with the pillars of Dignity.
“We emphasize creating more sources of employment, many more, jobs with the right to stability and well paid, an objective that requires the development of the agricultural industry, with capital and local labor to reduce poverty and social inequality. This is not a project to nationalize the economy, the country requires a strong state. We are also united in achieving the progress of the educational and scientific system and making health a true right, the defense of the environment for sustainable development, culture and art ”, stated Robledo.
Regarding the split of Robledo del Polo, Professor Blanco said: “El Polo is a party with political tendencies (center, center left and left). Since the last elections some of those tendencies supported Petro in the presidential elections; for example, the support of Iván Cepeda was clear. Now, the last elections have taught us that the true coalitions take shape at the last minute ”.
The above taking into account that Robledo has not expressed any possibility of supporting Petro in the next elections nor is it seen as close as if several members of the Pole are.
Meanwhile, regarding the governing party, Centro Democrático, Tuirán said that “the dispute is internal, most likely to obtain the anointing of former president Álvaro Uribe as the maximum head of that community.”
In turn, Blanco said that the panorama of Uribe is not so clear. “The blows in the Duque government polls, the imprisonment of Álvaro Uribe and the clear fissures or divisions within the Centro Democrático party will probably have a great impact on the Uribista electorate.. Uribism will try to extract electoral profits from the divisions of the alternative sectors while it will attack the peace process with FARC, this formula has paid off in other elections.
“Convergence without extremes”
As for sectors such as U, the outlook is still not very clear. The name that sounds is that of Dilian Francisca Toro. And the recent departure of Roy Barreras from the party also heralds a possible future move ahead of the elections. The political scientist Alejandro Blanco maintains that Barreras would lead sectors in defense of the Peace Agreement. Likewise, despite the fact that it circulates in political lies that Juan Manuel Santos would reappear supporting Sergio Fajardo, he has assured that he has no relationship with the former president and affirmed that a convergence outside the extremes would be the proposal for the next elections.
Coalition and participation of the Caribbean Region will be key for the next elections
Uribe sources have told EL HERALDO that For the next elections, a coalition with sectors of the center and right will be necessary to win them. In fact, for the director of the Political Science program at Uninorte, Fernando Giraldo, the meeting between Germán Vargas Lleras, leader of Cambio Radical, and Uribe Vélez, leader of the Democratic Center, in October 2018, would be key in the electoral process of 2022.
Although at that meeting differences were processed and agreements were reached regarding projects to reform justice, policies and the then Financing Law, Giraldo noted that during this meeting a kind of pact was important to join in 2022 and prevent let the left rise to power. However, Vargas Lleras on several occasions “plays” as an opponent of Uribe and Duque; but at other times his community has supported the president. In addition, the proximity of the Char house, strong politicians within Cambio Radical, with President Duque cannot be denied.
Precisely, Uribe sources confirmed to EL HERALDO that the former mayor of Barranquilla Alejandro Char is one of the names that appears as a presidential candidate representing the Democratic Center. The representative to the Chamber César Lorduy, of Radical Change and close to the Char house, said that it is “inevitable” that a candidate for the Presidency 2022, who can win, decants to the Caribbean Region.
“Necessarily, these elections will require the support of the Caribbean Region.. Alex Char is a potential candidate, whether he carries out his own process or is part of a key scheme for the 2022 elections ”. He added that from various regions of Colombia, not only the Caribbean, they want Char to make the decision to be part of the presidential elections. However, on several occasions the former mayor of Barranquilla has maintained that such aspiration is not his intention.. It is worth noting that in the last elections Gustavo Petro obtained more votes than Iván Duque in various departments of the Coast, among those Atlantic, an indicator that Uribism would have to take into account.