Wednesday, June 19, 2019
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European elections: National Rally at the top of voting intentions

The National Gathering (NR) could once again make a breakthrough in the European Parliament. According to the latest BVA barometer made for The Tribune, Europe 1, the regional press and Orange, the list conducted by Jordan Bardella earns two points to reach 23% of voting intentions. For its part, the list Renaissance (LREM-MoDem) led by Nathalie Loiseau gets 22% favorable responses. At the barometer in early May, the team of the European presidential majority had obtained the same score.

As the ballot approaches, the momentum is clearly in favor of the nationalist party. In February, the National Rally gathered 19% of intentions against 25% for the list of the Republic in progress and the MoDem.

The stable right

After a promising start to the campaign by many observers, the list of Republicans led by François-Xavier Bellamy remains at 13% at the same level as in the previous barometer. The party of Laurent Wauquiez could lose seats in the European hemicycle. In 2014, the list of the UMP had obtained 20.8% of the vote and 20 seats against 24 for the list of the National Front (FN).

Still on the right wing, the list "The courage to defend the French" led by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and supported by Debout France (DLF) is losing ground (-1 point) to settle at 3.5%. The europhobe list "Together for Frexit" led by François Asselineau and supported by the Republican People's Union (UPR) remains at the bottom of the table with 1.5% of intentions. Finally, the list of the former cadre of the National Front Florian Philippot stagnates at 2% (Les Patriotes).

A left crumbled

On the political spectrum, the left seems more than ever crumbled. The list of insubordinate France (LFI) led by Manon Aubry is slightly down (-0.5 points) with 8.5% of voting intentions. Then come the list "Envy of ecological and social Europe" led by Raphael Glucksmann and supported by Place Publique, the Socialist Party (PS) and Nouvelle Donne with a score of 5% (-0.5%). Finally, the team led by Ian Brossat and supported by the Communist Party (PC) would get 3% of intentions. It would be followed by the list of Generations carried by the former minister and member of the Socialist Party Benoît Hamon who would harvest only 2.5% of the ballots.

Ecologists progress slightly (+0.5 points) with 8.5% of intentions. The list "Europe Ecology" led by Yannick Jadot and supported by Europe Ecology the Greens is still very far from the historical score obtained by the team of Daniel Cohn-Bendit in 2009 which had at the time won 16% of the vote. It could, however, create a surprise. Indeed, the list of Greens was credited with 11% of the voting intentions before the vote 10 years ago.

A disturbing disinterest

The results of the barometer indicate that participation could be catastrophic.

"After a slight rebound in early May, in the wake of the announcements of Emmanuel Macron closing the great national debate, interest in Sunday's vote decreases slightly", explains the institute specialized in opinion polls.

Thus, only 57% of French people are interested in the European elections that will take place this Sunday in France, a decrease of 2 points compared to the last measurement in early May.

In terms of participation, between 46% and 52% of French (Metropolitan France) say they intend to go to the polls next Sunday. This is slightly higher than 2014 at the same time (44%). For President Macron, this election could be translated into a sanction vote after several months of unprecedented social crisis.

For BVA, "If this participation slightly stronger than in 2014 was confirmed, it would probably correlate to the fact that this is the first election since the election of Emmanuel Macron, the opportunity for some voters to express' their record after two years of presidential term.

BVA survey capture

(Click on the picture to read the survey in its entirety)

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Method: study conducted on a sample surveyed by the Internet from 20 to 21 May 2019. Sample of 1,347 registered voters, identified in a sample of 1,500 French, representative of the national population aged 18 and over . The voting intentions contained in this report are based on the persons registered on the electoral lists, some of whom voted and who expressed an intention to vote, ie 678 individuals.

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