Steve Peoples, The Associated Press
Published Monday, November 5, 2018 07:36 EST
WASHINGTON – The day of the settlement of American politics has almost come.
Tuesday's voters will decide on the $ 5 billion debate between US President Donald Trump's policies and the Democratic Party's Super Democratic Party Demise to end the GOP's monopoly in Washington and state homes across America.
There is evidence that an oft-discussed "Blue Wave" could help Democrats gain control of at least one congressional chamber. But two years after a poll that has polls and forecasters proved wrong, nothing is certain on the eve of the Trump presidency's first national election.
"I do not think there is a Democrat in this country who has no deep fears in 2016," said Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY's List, which has spent more than ever before – a total of nearly US $ 60 million Dollar – support Democratic women this season.
"Everything is important and everything is at stake," said Schriock.
All 435 seats in the US house are available for re-election. And 35 senate seats are in play, almost 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.
Trump himself, who does not take part in the vote, acknowledges that the interim results of 2018 are mainly a referendum on his presidency.
If the Democrats gain control of the house, as the strategists of both parties consider likely, they could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years. Perhaps more importantly, they also receive the summons to investigate the many personal and professional errors of the President.
The Tuesday elections will also demonstrate the strength of a political reorientation of the Trump era, defined by evolving divisions among the electorate by race, gender and above all education.
The republican coalition of Trump is getting older, whiter, male and with a lower degree. Democrats rely more on women, people of color, young people and university graduates.
The political realignment, if there is one, could reshape US policy for a generation.
Five years ago, the Republican National Committee reported that the survival of the GOP depended on attracting more minorities and women. These voters have increasingly fled from Trump's Republican Party, which has been rejected by its chaotic leadership style and xenophobic rhetoric. Workers, however, have embraced the unconventional president.
One of the authors of the RNC report, Ari Fleischer, acknowledged that Republican leaders could never imagine expanding their ranks with White Workmen.
"What it means to be Republican is being rewritten as we speak," Fleischer said. "Donald Trump has the pencil and his handwriting is not always very good."
A nationwide poll released Sunday by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal outlines the depth of demographic change.
Democrats led with probably African American constituents (84% to 8%), Latinos (57% to 29%), voters between 18 and 34 (57% to 34%), women (55%) to 37%) and independents ( 35 percent to 23 percent).
For white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy an advantage of 28 points: 61 to 33 percent.
On the other hand, Republicans led with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 (52% to 43%), men (50% to 43%) and whites (50% to 44%). For whites without a university degree, the Republicans led by 65 to 30 percent.
Democrats hope to elect a record number of women for Congress. They are also willing to write history, with the number of LGBT candidates and Muslims.
Former President Barack Obama picked up the differences between the parties in a recent fight to motivate voters across the nation.
"Choosing will not eradicate racism, sexism or homophobia," Obama said during a Florida appearance. "It will not happen in an election, but it will be a start."
Trump has put forward a completely different argument against Latin American immigrants seeking asylum at the US border.
In the weeks in which the caravan was moving, Trump sent more than 5,000 soldiers to the region. The president also said soldiers use lethal force against migrants who throw stones before later turning themselves around.
Nonetheless, his xenophobic rhetoric was unprecedented for a modern American president: "Using barbed wire properly can be a pretty sight," Trump told Montana voters.
It is expected that the mortgaged environment will lead to record participation in some places, but on the eve of the election it is by no means certain which side will appear in the largest number.
The result is clouded by the dramatically different landscape between the house and the Senate.
Democrats are the most optimistic about the house, a vast battlefield stretching from Alaska to Florida. However, most of the top races take place in America's suburbs, where educated and wealthy voters of both parties, despite the strength of the economy, have lost Trump's turbulent presidency.
Democrats need two dozen seats to reach the majority of the house.
Former New York mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, who has personally invested $ 110 million in supporting Democrats this year, predominantly in-house, has seized election elector Howard Wolfson's voter education in the selection of goal races.
"In this cycle, it seemed as if the well educated voters had a disproportionately negative reaction to Trump," he said.
As a result, the Bloomberg team poured money into otherwise overlooked suburban areas in states such as Georgia, Washington, and Oklahoma, because the data showed that voters there were better educated.
Democrats are facing a much more difficult challenge in the Senate, defending almost exclusively in rural states where Trump is popular. Democratic Senate operators are back for election, for example in North Dakota, West Virginia and Montana – states that Trump wore on average two years ago by 30 percentage points.
Democrats need to win two seats to claim the majority in the Senate, though most political activists on both sides expect Republicans to increase their majority.
While Trump is ready to win if his party retains control of the Senate, at least one prominent ally fears that the loss of a chamber of Congress could be catastrophic.
"If they take the house back, he will basically become a lame duck president and he will not win re-election," said Amy Kremer, a tea party activist who heads the Women for Trump group.
"They will do anything to accuse him," she said.
In fact, powerful democratic forces are already pushing for Trump's impeachment, even if the Democratic leaders are unwilling to go that far.
Liberal activist Tom Steyer spent around 120 million US dollars in this mid-season. Much of this has boosted electoral turnout among younger voters despite launching a nationwide publicity campaign calling for Trump to be ousted.
Steyer insisted that most Democrats agree.
"We are not a marginal element of the Democratic Party, we are the Democratic Party," he said.
By election day, both sides reportedly spent more than $ 5 billion, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The tide of campaign money, an intermediate record, was fueled mainly by the energy of the left.
Money aside, Steyer said he and the troubled voters put their hearts and souls to fight to punish Trump's party.
"That's what it's about: my heart and soul, along with everyone else," he said.