expect positive months due to lower inflation

Although the market takes for granted that the BCRA will not touch rates, at least in the short term, an expected slowdown in the CPI for the next few months could make them “positive” in real terms. At least temporarily. Is that according to the REM carried out by the monetary authority, the consulting firms estimate that July inflation pierced 3% (2.9%), and the same will occur in August (2.8%), September, October and November (2 , 7%); to return to 3.1% in December.

“There could be a ‘summer’ in the real rate if inflation falls temporarily and the nominal rate remains unchanged. But I think that real reward would be too low to encourage local currency investments and hedge against months of exchange rate volatility. The gap of about 90% and negative rates in dollar-linked bonds are symptoms of a market that seeks coverage against changes in the price of the dollar, especially in the vicinity of the elections, ”he explained to Ámbito Nery Perischini, head of strategy GMA Capital.

“The Central Bank recently said that it had no plans to raise rates. And inflation would go down very little, so that it does not seem that people are very attracted to pesos, “they said from the consulting firm. Econviews. When analyzing whether this situation could cause the surplus of liquidity to boost consumption, they remarked: “Something is going to overturn, especially if they implement programs such as Now 30, retirement bonuses or AUH, for example.”

Consumption

Just yesterday the Government announced the extension of the program Now 12, with the expansion of the payment plan in up to 24 and 30 installments for household appliances and computers, with the aim of promoting internal consumption and increasing national production. Although in some cases the fees are interest-free, the Government established a maximum that the participating businesses can charge. As officially reported, the rates for the 3-installment plans are 4.06%; in 6 installments, 7.27%; in 12 installments, 13.90%; in 18 installments, 20.78%; in 24 installments 30.33%; and in 30 installments, 40.18%.

These are convenient rates, taking into account that the inflation estimated by the REM for this year is 48% and for 2022, 42%. Even more so if one takes into account that the financing interest of a credit card from a private bank has an Annual Nominal Rate (TNA) in pesos of 43% and a Total Financial Cost (CFT) of around 66%.

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“The plan will help to recover consumption, because many people need the quotas to be able to make a certain amount of purchases that otherwise have no form. The issue to be seen is that many families and people have the cards at the top, and many banks have not updated the amounts of purchases and it is a problem that is being seen, there are many operations that go out with cards at the limit. That is the main problem “, pointed to Ámbito Pedro Cascales, CAME spokesperson, who remarked: “Regarding interest rates, they are good, because they are lower than inflation rates. They are very attractive. And it is also good that they have included some items that were not included, such as optics, footwear and textiles ”.