Trading on Friday (25th), crude oil futures prices rose, making this week the fifth consecutive week of highs, due to the recovery of the global economy, investors are optimistic about demand performance.
Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said, “The reason for the continuous rise in oil prices is simple. Global oil demand is recovering faster than supply. U.S. oil production is declining, and OPEC seems reluctant to increase production too much, even if the global oil market is very Obviously pray for more supplies.”
- WTI crude oil futures prices for August delivery rose by 75 cents, or nearly 1%, to close at $74.05 per barrel. This week’s most recent monthly oil price rose by 3.9% and hit the highest closing price since October 9, 2018.
- The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 62 cents, or 0.8%, to $76.18 per barrel, the highest closing price of the most recent monthly contract since October 29, 2018. It closed up 3.6% this week.
- The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 57 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $75.38 per barrel, which is the most actively traded contract.
Commodity analyst Eugen Weinberg said in a report that “market sentiment and price momentum are still extremely positive.”
Weinberg pointed out that the decline in crude oil on Thursday was due to reports that OPEC+ may decide next week to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day from the established plan from August (the July planned increase of production by 800,000 barrels per day). But facts have proved that this pressure is short-lived, “because supply expansion will never derail the market. As indicated by the market reaction yesterday, considering that the oil market may supply less than 1.4 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, even OPEC Really increasing production is far from enough.”
OPEC + will formally hold a meeting on July 1 to review oil production levels.
IHS Markit energy market analyst Marshall Steeves said that even if OPEC+ decides to increase production in August, “the facts may prove that this is not enough to meet the expected increase in demand. Global inventories have tightened, and this is also the case in the United States.”
“The oil market may respond to unexpected OPEC+ news, whether it is a substantial increase in production quotas since August, or only a small increase or even no increase in production.” Steeves said.
At the same time, Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran said that the price gap between WTI and Brent crude oil has narrowed significantly. Since late April, the price difference per barrel has surpassed US$4 and is now only slightly higher than US$2.25. Strong U.S. demand.
“The recovery in demand in the US is faster than in other regions,” he wrote.
“Improved demand this spring has made refining margins stronger relative to the global region, thus boosting operations. With the rapid tightening of the US supply and demand balance, WTI’s stronger than Brent will help stimulate global imports and curb crude oil exports.” Tran said.
He believes that there is room for further narrowing of the WTI/Brent price gap because the market tends to rush over, but he pointed out that imported crude oil shipments are running at their highest rate so far this year.
Other energy commodity trading
- The price of gasoline futures for July delivery fell nearly 0.8% to close at $2.26 per gallon, and closed 4.4% higher this week.
- The price of hot fuel oil futures for July delivery fell 0.6% to close at $2.15 a gallon and closed 2.7% higher this week.
- The price of natural gas futures for delivery in July rose by 2.3% to close at nearly US$3.50 per million Btu, reaching the highest closing price since January 2019. It closed up 8.7% this week.