Gold: China is shrinking

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The gold price shows little inspiration at the beginning of the week and fluctuates around the closing price of the previous week at around 1,840 dollars. Australian mines were weak across the board at the start of the week, suggesting further consolidation in the sector earlier in the week. Meanwhile, in Australia, the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (DISER) has spoken out and issued a forecast for the global gold supply. According to DISER, the global gold supply is expected to increase 2.7 percent in 2021 to 4,840 tons due to higher gold mine production in Australia, the US and Canada, but that growth will slow to an average annual rate of 1.1 percent between 2022 and 2023, with gold production in Australia projected to increase by 3 by 2021 .2 percent increase to 338 tons, while production in Canada and the U.S. will increase 24 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, to 224 and 212 tons, suggesting a recovery in production after the interruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to DISER is due. At the same time, gold mining production in China is projected to decline 11 percent to 335 tons by 2021 as stricter environmental and safety regulations result in mine closures. DISER added that gold mining production in Latin America should recover in 2021 after heavy losses in 2020. Production is forecast to increase in Mexico (by 14 percent in 2021 to 121 tons), Peru (by 15 percent to 100 tons) and Brazil (by 3.4 percent to 90 tons). According to the report, gold recycling activity is expected to remain subdued in 2021 as measures are put in place in many parts of the world to contain new waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors should always keep in mind with these numbers that 2020 will be an extremely weak year in business Gold production has been because numerous mines were closed due to Corona measures. Also in the current year, the corporations, especially, but not only, in Western Australia are still feeling the after-effects of Corona and are complaining about a shortage of skilled workers in the mines, which is also having an impact on production. It is difficult to tell from these figures whether peak gold, i.e. the peak of gold production, has already been reached or not.

Markus Bußler

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