Guide not to get lost in the main regional and municipal pacts

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06/12/2019 05:00Updated: 06/13/2019 15:48

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The entire electoral cycle has been carried out on two dates with a difference of just one month between them. Between 28th of April and the May 26We have voted for our parliaments and governments at all institutional levels: first the national and then the municipal and the autonomous in 12 of the 17 Autonomous Communities, in addition to our representation in the European Parliament.

With a extraordinarily fragmented political map (five political forces at the national level, a large collection of nationalist and regionalist forces and many local candidacies in the municipal ones) and with different terms, methods and timetables for the formation of governments at each institutional level, the cross-negotiation of covenants required is extremely complex.

The first peremptory period is June 15, the date on which all municipalities will be formed simultaneously from Spain to choose their mayors. The method of that election is expeditious: if in the first and only vote no candidate obtains an absolute majority, the head of the list of the most voted candidate in the 26-M elections is automatically proclaimed mayor.

Cristina Suarez

We compile the main conclusions left by the electoral hangover, which has called for mayors, presidents of 12 autonomous communities and the representation of Spain in Europe to vote

This means that the municipal pacts must be concluded before the autonomous presidencies and that of the Government of Spain have been resolved. However, the relationship between one and the other pacts (especially between the autonomous and municipal ones) is obvious.

In this document, we have made a selection of:

  1. The 12 Autonomous Communities that voted for their parliaments on May 26.

  2. All municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants in the 17 Autonomous Communities.

  3. The provincial capitals and autonomous capitals, although they do not reach 100,000 inhabitants.

For each of them, we offer:

  • The electoral result in percentages and seats / councilors obtained by each political force.

  • The most credible combinations of government, taking into account the previous declarations of the political forces (preferred partners, vetoes, etc.).

  • A brief comment on the situation and prospects in each territory.

Finally, we add a synthetic table that categorizes the different pact formulas and a brief analysis of the situation in which the main political forces could remain in the distribution of territorial power, as well as possible interactions with the negotiation of the investiture of the president of the Government.

ANDALUSIA

  • The PSOE only has four mayors insured: Huelva and Dos Hermanas (with an absolute majority) and Seville and Jerez (with left-wing pacts). This Tuesday it has been known that Cs will give him his support so that he also governs in Jaén. Its result in the smaller towns gives it control of all the provincial councils except that of Almería.

  • The PP can get six of the 12 large Andalusian city halls with right-wing pacts. In Marbella it has an absolute majority, and in Malaga, Almería and Algeciras an agreement with Ciudadanos would suffice. In Granada you would need to add Vox, and in Córdoba you can do it with a tripartite pact or as the first list.

  • Adelante Andalucía will retain the mayoralty of Cádiz, with the support of the PSOE or alone.

  • Vox he does not obtain any councilor in Malaga, Jerez and Cádiz. Your vote only decisive in Granada.

ARAGON

  • After the agreement of the PSOE with the PAR, There is no alternative majority for a coalition on the right. The PSOE-PAR block can be completed with Cs or with the parties on the left (We can, IU, CHA).

  • The three municipalities depend on Citizens. Maybe he will claim one of those mayorships (Zaragoza?) In exchange for an autonomous pact with the PSOE.

ASTURIAS

  • The PSOE will govern in the autonomous community and in the Gijón City Council with left-wing pacts.

  • In Oviedo, PP and Cs have a sufficient majority without Vox.

BALEARICS

  • The PSOE can govern in the community and in the Palma City Council de Mallorca with a leftist agreement. In neither of the two institutions is there an alternative pact.

CANARY ISLANDS

  • In the autonomous community, a PSOE-Cs agreement would have a comfortable absolute majority. In another case, the ASG (led by Casimiro Curbelo, ex-PSOE) will decide the sign of the autonomous government.

  • The PSOE will govern in Las Palmas, with a leftist pact or as the first list.

  • In Santa Cruz, only a tripartite PSOE-PP-Cs could snatch the mayoralty from the Canary Coalition.

  • Vox does not exist in the Autonomous Parliament or in any of the four large municipalities.

CANTABRIA

  • Strengthening of the PRC and continuity of the PRC-PSOE coalition in the community.

  • In Santander, the two councilors of Citizens have the key to a pact with PP and PRC or one with PSOE and PRC. His abstention would suffice to give the mayor the PP as the most voted list.

CASTILLA LA MANCHA

  • Absolute majority of the PSOE in the community, but three of the five capitals (Albacete, Guadalajara and Ciudad Real) depend on Citizens.

  • In Toledo, the PSOE can choose a partner between UP and Cs.

  • In Cuenca, the most plausible is that the local candidacy (CNU) supports the PSOE.

  • Podemos disappears from the regional Parliament, which does not include Vox either.

CASTILLA Y LEÓN

  • Together with Navarra, the hottest and most strategic setting for this pact process.

  • Citizens have in their hands to decide not only the regional government but several of the region’s capitals. The first symptoms point to a right-wing pact, which in the community would not require Vox.

  • The PSOE has insured the municipalities of Soria, Segovia and Valladolid. The mayor of Izquierda Unida retains its absolute majority in the city of Zamora.

  • Vox does not obtain municipal representation in five of the nine capitals, and a single seat (out of 81) in the regional Parliament.

CATALONIA

  • If Ada Colau presents her candidacy, she will be mayor with the support of the PSC and Valls.

  • Spectacular recovery of the PSC in the Barcelona belt, recovering much of its old fortress, which it had lost to the benefit of Citizens.

  • Ciudadanos recedes significantly compared to the generals, and much more compared to the autonomic ones of 2017. It falls outside the municipal power in Catalonia, which is divided between nationalists and socialists.

  • The PP recovers the Badalona mayoralty, but remains on the brink of extinction in the rest of Catalonia. Vox does not enter any town hall.

  • Except in Girona, ERC consolidates its hegemony over JxCAT in the independence space.

VALENCIAN COMMUNITY

  • The left will govern in Valencia (mayor of Compromís), Elche and Castellón (mayors of the PSOE).

  • In Alicante, the tripartite on the right has an absolute majority. If there is no agreement, the mayor’s office would correspond to the PSOE as the first list.

ESTREMADURA

  • Absolute majority of the PSOE in the community and in the regional capital.

  • In Cáceres and Badajoz, Ciudadanos holds the key to the municipal government.

GALICIA

  • The Tides lose all their Galician mayorships in favor of the PSOE, which, in addition, would maintain Vigo (with an absolute majority) and Lugo (with the BNG). The Feijóo Government will cohabit with the municipal hegemony of the PSOE in the main cities of Galicia.

  • The BNG retains the mayoralty of Pontevedra and reappears strongly in the other cities.

  • The PP would only have the mayoralty of Ourense if it obtains the support of the local candidacy Democracia Ourensana, which arbitrates the situation.

THE RIOJA

  • The PSOE can choose a government partner in the region, since it has both UP and Cs. By not entering the Vox Parliament or the PR, there is no possible majority for the PP to keep this Government.

  • In Logroño, there are several possible combinations. The PR councilor is key to completing the majority of both the right and the left. His abstention would give the mayor to the PSOE as the first list. The PSOE and Cs would also add an absolute majority.

MADRID

  • Probable majority of the right tripartite in the regional Assembly and in the capital, although Ciudadanos could change the sign of both governments.

  • The PSOE reestablishes its old hegemony in the great populations of the Madrid belt. It will obtain all the mayoralties except those of Torrejón (absolute majority of the PP) and Alcobendas, where Cs has the key.

MURCIA

  • In the capital, the PP and Cs have an absolute majority on their own.

  • In Cartagena, the cantonal party will have the mayoralty. You can try to govern in the minority or agree with another party (probably the PSOE).

  • Citizens have the key to the regional government.

NAVARRE

  • The most complex and politically significant situation on the entire pact map. The decision of the provincial government is in the hands of the PSOE: abstain to allow Navarra Suma (UPN + PP + Cs) to govern or head a coalition government with Geroa Bai, Podemos and IU, which would require Bildu’s abstention.

  • The PSOE decision may affect the investiture of Pedro Sánchez (PNV votes) and the PNV-PSOE agreements in the Basque Country.

  • In Pamplona, ​​Na + only needs one councilor for the absolute majority. The only way to prevent him from ruling would be an implausible pact between Bildu, PSOE and Geroa Bai.

BASQUE COUNTRY

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