Liputan6.com, Wisconsin – About 2,000 people wearing well-dressed masks are present in the southern courtyard of the White House, Washington DC They are waiting for the American presidential candidate to step onto the pulpit to deliver a speech at the 2020 Republican National Convention (RNC).
It was a big night for Donald Trump. Thursday, 27 August 2020 was the time when he officially accepted the candidacy for president of the Republican Party.
His wife, children, son-in-law and grandchildren also appeared. At the beginning of the speech, he even immediately praised the First Lady and his golden child, Ivanka Trump.
With full confidence Donald Trump attacked his political opponent Joe Biden. He said Biden’s victory would only exacerbate the crisis that surrounded the United States.
“It is not an American savior,” Trump said.
“If given the opportunity, he will become a destroyer of the greatness of the United States,” he added.
The speech for approximately 70 minutes was closed with cheers of supporters and a fireworks display. The chorus of music and the song “Hallelujah” by Leonard Cohen were also played by the Opera band live.
In fact, the US public out there is preparing for demonstrations. Anti-racism protesters are planning to flood the streets of the US capital on Friday, August 28, following the shooting by a white policeman of African American Jacob Blake.
The incident has reignited anger over police violence and sparked a worldwide boycott movement. This issue was also used by Trump’s political opponent, Joe Biden, who had previously delivered a speech at the Democratic National Convention.
The former Vice President in the Barack Obama era expressed harsh criticism about the issue of racism which he considered Donald Trump to have undermined.
In recent times, cases of racism have angered the citizens of the United States and the world. For example, the case of the death of George Floyd and the latest Jacob Blake, which describes the crisis of racism in the country.
“A president who is irresponsible, refuses to lead, blames others, is a dictator and kindles the flames of hatred and division. He will always believe in his thoughts and not about you (US citizens),” Biden was quoted as saying. CNBC.
“Is that the America you want for your family and children?”
“I see a different America. One that is generous and strong. Selfless and humble.”
The Democratic presidential candidate continues to raise racial, economic and social issues. Donald Trump responded by saying, “at the Democratic National Convention, Joe Biden and his party repeatedly attacked and called the US the land of racial, economic and social injustice,” he was quoted as saying from CNN.
“So tonight, I am asking a very simple question: How can the Democrats ask to lead our country when they spend so much time destroying our country?”
Then, what impact will the issue of racism have on US citizens? Considering that the presidential election will be approximately three months from now, who will benefit or even lose from this situation?
These racism cases occur ahead of the presidential election in November. This has sparked debate about the incumbent Donald Trump’s tenure and Joe Biden’s competence if elected.
According to US political observer Didin Nasirudin, the issue of racism cannot necessarily keep Donald Trump from power. Not to mention the demonstration Black Lives Matter could make voters become antipathy to the movement and ultimately sympathy for Donald Trump’s administration.
This can actually benefit Donald Trump, because one of the keys to winning the US presidential election is moderate voters who do not lean towards the Democratic or Republican Party.
“If for example the demonstration is getting out of control, it means that it is getting more radical, eventually the moderate group becomes antipathy,” Didin explained to Liputan6.com, Friday (28/8/2020).
So far, Donald Trump has sided with the police through the narrative “law and order” during demonstrations in recent months. Donald Trump also has political support from the police association in New York.
However, Didin assessed that the strongest issues at this time were the economy and COVID-19. If Donald Trump is successful in both aspects, the chances of him being elected will be even stronger.
The measure used by Didin is the Misery Index (Index of Tribulation) in the United States. The index measures the rate of inflation and unemployment. If the index crosses nine percent, it will make it difficult for the president to be elected.
It happened during the period of President Jimmy Carter when the Misery Index in his administration was broken to 16 percent. Trump’s index score has now been above nine percent in the past three months.
“The smaller the Misery Index in the election year the greater the chance for the incumbent presidential candidate to be re-elected. The US Misery Index for the January – March 2020 period is around six percent; in April – July the average is around 13.5 percent,” said Didin.
The US presidential election is in November, so President Trump still has the opportunity to improve his Misery Index. If the COVID-19 vaccine is successful and unemployment decreases, it could have a positive impact on Donald Trump’s campaign.
Currently, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the US has reached 180 thousand people. Last month, the unemployment rate was observed to fall to 10.2 percent, but it is still higher than before the pandemic.
In line with Didin Nasirudin, Chair of the Indonesian Institute of Advanced International Studies (INADIS) Suzie Sudarman who was contacted by Liputan6.com some time ago when George Floyd’s death was being discussed, he also had the same assessment regarding Donald Trump’s chances.
He considered, the time span to the day of the US presidential election is still very long. During that period, candidates and supporters could do various things to boost electability.
“In the United States, the vulnerable time from June to November 2020 will be like a century. Manipulation can happen anytime,” said Suzie, who is also a lecturer in International Relations at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Indonesia.
“Manipulation from foreign parties like Russia inflating the right wing of the United States and the pro-Trump affluent approach can make the situation change,” he added.
Regarding Joe Biden’s political maneuvers, according to Suzie, Biden’s figure is different when compared to Barack Obama or Berny Sander.
“Obama during his campaign gave hope. Biden was less attractive. This is because US citizens are much more interested in attractive people,” Suzie explained.
Berny Sander is also considered by Suzie as a figure who previously was able to attract millennials. He once emphasized in the 2016 presidential election that the US people must rise up, the people have the right to demand insurance.
“US citizens live too comfortably. If the issue of unemployment still occurs until November, then Donald Trump could lose,” Suzie concluded.