Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 election, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and voters.
• Follow updates from across the country on Monday
Where things are
• Democrats have a 13-point lead in terms of which party to control Congress, according to a recent CNN poll, with overwhelming support from women.
The national poll shows that 55 percent of voters prefer democratic control of the house, while 42 percent said they wanted Republicans to stay in power.
While men are effectively divided on the issue, women support the Democrats in large numbers: 62 percent of women said Democrats should take over Congress, while only 35 percent give Republican votes.
The gap is clearly determined by views of President Trump. Only 39 percent of voters agree with the president's workload, but even lower among women: only 31 percent of women believe Trump is doing a good job as president, while 63 percent disagree.
• Do you think that the 2018 campaign will be over after all the ballots of Tuesday have been counted? Think again.
Some Republican officials now believe that the Georgian governor's race will lead to a runoff election on December 4 as neither Stacey Abrams, the Democrat, nor Brian Kemp, the Republican, will achieve the majority of votes.
The race is The in the private poll and while Mr. Kemp has a slight advantage in the G.O.P. Polls, election winner Ted Metz, could receive around two percent of the vote. (At the 2014 Governor's Competition in Georgia, the libertarian candidate scored 2.36 percent of the vote.)
This could prevent a major candidate on election day from reaching 50 percent if the race is around the neck.
• The excitement over the new investigation of Mr. Kemp's office of the Georgia Democratic Party interjected curveball in the last days of this tight race.
• With the upcoming election day, the Trump consultants prepared the weekend to prepare the president for the Republican losses this week and what that could mean for his agenda in parliament.
• Two New York Times Upshot / Siena College polls ended Sunday night's bell weather races, which we'll see on Tuesday – and they're just around the corner.
In Kentucky, where polls are closed at 18.00. Eastern, Representative Andy Barr, Republican, and Amy McGrath, Democratic candidate, are tied at 44 percent.
In Virginia, where the polls are closed at 19.00, Rep. Dave Brat, Republican, is just ahead of his Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger. The survey had a sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
• The re-election of Representative Steve King in Iowa on Sunday saw a poll by Times Upshot / Siena stating that Mr. King had a 5-point advantage over Democrat J. Scholten. However, the margin of the sampling error was plus or minus 5 points. Mr. King has usually opted for re-election, but his history of racist comments, a recent interview with a neo-Nazi-related publication, and a reprimand from a Republican party chief have complicated his race.
Mr Scholten's advisers tell us that they are preparing to recount when the vote is extremely meager. They also cut one last digital ad in which Mr Scholten said it was time for a new leadership in both parties to replace Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan.
• Completed two months of Times Upshot / Siena College poll on Sunday evening – a total of 96 polls, an extraordinary and intriguing venture. Check them all here. Thanks to Amanda Cox, Nate Cohn and our colleagues in Upshot.
• On the Senate side, the Trafalgar group, a Republican company, has conducted a new poll on the US Senate race in Arizona, in which the Democratic candidate, Kyrsten Sinema, is slightly ahead of the G.O.P. Candidate, Martha McSally.
• For more details on where the campaign is for the Congress, see our Senate Election Plan here and for the house is here.
The president has planned three election rallies:
• 3 pm. in Cleveland with the Republican candidate for Ohio Governor, Mike DeWine.
• 6:30 in the evening. in Fort Wayne, Indiana, with the Republican Senate candidate in Indiana, Mike Brown.
• 10 am at Cape Girardeau, Mo., with Missouri Republican candidate for the Senate, Josh Hawley.
Back in New York, if Claudia Tenney is not the preferred Trump member of the congress, she's high on the list. On Monday, Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle will lead a rally for the Republican in the back country. After President Trump, Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump, he is the fourth member of his family to appear in Ms. Tenny's district in recent months.
A poll conducted by Times Upshot / Siena found that Ms. Tenney and Democrat candidate Anthony Brindisi are nearly balanced.
Voter turnout in Florida
Around 25,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted early on Sunday afternoon in Florida. according to updated national statistics on Monday morning.
• Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor candidate, believes this is a good sign for him.
"I'd rather be me than he," he said of his Democratic opponent Andrew Gillum. In an interview with reporters in South Daytona, Florida, he cited a "large reservoir of committed electoral voters" for the Republicans as well.
• Mr Gillum sees things differently and tells reporters in Miami that he is "not affected at all".
"The hard part is a look at Democrat vs. Republican, which leaves over 800,000 independents and non-party partners behind," he said. "We believe that we are leaders in this category, and we do not believe that all Republicans who voted will vote for Mr DeSantis. We believe that we will have a fair share of it. "
Democrats on Bob Hugin's block
Tom Malinowski is the Democratic candidate against Representative Leonard Lance in the 7th Congressional district of New Jersey.
But his campaign workers are giving headache to Republican Senate candidate Bob Hugin.
One of Mr. Malinowski's volunteer organizers, Lacey Rzeszowski, lives in the same block as Mr. Hugin in Summit, New Jersey. On both days this weekend, her home served as the headquarters for the acquisition of Mr. Malinowski in the city. Hundreds of people flocked across the lawn and into the neighborhood to assist Mr. Malinowski.
On Saturday, the attendance was so overwhelming that the police temporarily closed the block.
Mr. Malinowski shared the news with Mr. Hugin's opponent, Senator Bob Menendez, at a Sunday morning breakfast in Union County and agreed, "Senator Menendez will like this story."