How much will Brexit “cost” in the UK?

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THE ECO SCAN – Many institutions are seeking to assess the past and future economic weight of the UK’s exit from the European Union. The figures vary pending the end of negotiations with Brussels at the end of 2020.

At a Brexit demonstration in London on January 29.
At a Brexit demonstration in London on January 29. KENZO TRIBOUILLARD / AFP

When trying to assess the economic consequences of an unprecedented event, estimates must necessarily be taken with caution. The exercise is delicate, as diving into the unknown can seem dizzying. However, some institutions, such as the IMF, the OECD, think-tanks and the European Commission are engaging in the exercise with curiosity. In the case of Brexit, the question comes up regularly: will the United Kingdom see its activity collapse when it leaves the European Union? Or will it, on the contrary, be able to take off, freed from the shackles of Brussels? Overview of estimates.

● An already perceptible effect on activity in the United Kingdom

Over the past three years, British growth has lost strength, gradually yielding to the blows of the global slowdown, on the one hand, and the uncertainty that worries the private sector in the United Kingdom. This refrain is constantly coming back: “Uncertainty” is for example pointed out by the European Commission in its dated forecasts

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