How much would enter Colombia due to the energy crisis? | Government | Economy

Thanks to the global energy crisis, due to the fall in the supply of natural gas, To which is added a winter that will arrive in a few weeks, the country will receive millionaire resources.

The reason is the unbridled rise so far this year, but more so in the third quarter and in the first two weeks of October, in the prices of coal and oil in the international markets that will allow the nation to raise close to $ 50 billion.

(Why is everyone talking about a global energy shortage?).

This energy situation, from which Colombia has undoubtedly benefited from the excessive increase in the production of both commodities to meet the unabated demand worldwide, It is presented two weeks before COP26, in which issues of the energy transition with clean sources will be aired.

“The shortage in the supply of gas occurs after the pandemic, since the reactivation of the oil fields has not had the expected speed, this despite the economic revitalization, which led to a worldwide energy contraction, for for this reason, various parts of the world, especially Europe, are looking for coal and oil to replace them “explained Nicolás Arboleda, energy, mining and infrastructure associate at Baker McKenzie.

(The energy reconversion in Colombia).

Another point to take into account is the pulse that Australia and China have been holding since last year, what altered the supply of coal in the world, and proof of this is that Beijing ordered the rationalization of the mineral. In addition to the price soaring due to the drop in supply, Europe is not only appealing to coal, but to oil.

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THE COUNTRY ACCOUNTS

The high price that both commodities have been registering would not only allow the country to receive close to $ 9 billion for oil revenues, but little more than $ 40 billion for coal sales in the international market.

While on the sides of the black mineral, the behavior in the world price will draw a projection for the production to increase between 40% and 50% in 2021, as stated by the Minister of Mines and Energy, Diego Mesa, in an interview with the Bloomberg agency; In the oil operation, the increase in crude pumping will be close to 25%.

“Colombian coal and oil have and will play a relevant role in the coming months, which will allow the country to have a small bonanza in its income, and which will help it to balance cash”, the official pointed out.

The most significant case has been that of coal, a mineral whose price in European markets has practically tripled so far this year, and at the close of last Friday at the ICE Rotterdam, registered a price of US $ 227 per ton.

Between January 1 and October 15 of this year the ton of coal in international markets has increased by US $ 157 per ton, which represents a variation of 224%.

In other words, if the Executive’s calculations are maintained, which estimate that coal production in the country for 2021 will reach 60 million tons, more than $ 40 billion would enter the nation’s coffers.

On the other hand, in oil matters, the growth in the international price of the barrel will also help the country to balance its finances to a large extent, and if the price in the Brent reference (by which Colombian crude is governed) exceeds the US $ 85 would be added to extraction a volume between 150,000 and 200,000 barrels average day (bpd), which added to the pumping registered between January and July of this year, which is 730,138 bpd, would exceed 880,000 bpd for December.

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Between January 1 and October 15 of this year, the price of a barrel (Brent reference) in international markets has increased by US $ 34.7, which represents a variation of 69.1%.

“With this quote, not only exploration tasks are increased, the improved recovery processes and the production of heavy crude oil would be more activated. The offshore activity would be fully accelerated, and even a strong imposition would be given to the development of unconventionals “, explained the engineer Julio César Vera, consultant and president of the XUA Energy Foundation.

PROFITABILITY IN PRODUCTION

Although the 60 million tons of coal, which the National Government estimates will be produced this year, the levels registered prior to the pandemic are not the same, more if one takes into account that in 2020 48.4 million were extracted tons and in 2019 they were 85 million tons, The truth is that due to the international price, in 2021 more profits will be obtained, more so when taking as a reference that a year ago the ton did not exceed US $ 38.

On the other hand, in the oil activity, if between 150,000 and 200,000 bpd are added to national production due to a price that is above US $ 85 a barrel, it would represent an additional $ 4.5 billion in revenue for the nation. in one year of operation.

It should be remembered that The Medium Term Fiscal Framework (Mfmp) traced the nation’s accounts with a barrel, Brent reference at US $ 60, and that they were adjusted to US $ 67 in the General Budget of the Nation (PGN), which means that for every US $ 10 above the limit, an additional $ 500,000 million per year will be allowed to enter the country.

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“Although this quarter of an hour for coal and national oil in the markets of the world will allow income to the nation, the Executive must estimate how long this situation can last, more when in a matter of months, natural gas will recover the lost space”Baker Mckenzie’s Grove emphasized.

Alfonso Lopez Suarez
Portfolio Writing

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