How to port when the real RECESSION hasn’t arrived yet?

Entering August, the market appears to have eased concerns over strong US interest rate hikes and lower inflation in the coming months. But raising interest rates for the rest of the year continues to move forward. and the fast and strong interest rate hike in the previous period. causing economic growth to decline

And there is another possibility as well. that the situation is not as expected Or there are new factors that affect and make the US Federal Reserve. Ready to use other machines to solve problems Which has happened and is being watched from this is the case of China and Taiwan that are supported by the United States. that has caused tension recently

Therefore, with the overall picture, there is still a high degree of uncertainty. Should we focus on investing by focusing on maintaining the principal as much as possible or should we find opportunities in this market rhythm to invest in order to generate the most returns ..? Issues that investors should pay attention to are The rest of this year, it doesn’t matter how much the Fed raises interest rates. But the important thing is that “What will be the interest rate this year?”

According to the Fed’s target, the year-end interest rate is around 3.5%. Due to other factors causing the situation to change, such as inflation is still rising, the Ukrainian-Russian war has turned violent, the violent conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan affects the economy.

These are variables that are not easily predictable. causing the market to return to worry and cause volatility. Currently, KTBST SEC views that the chance of a real recession this year is still low. This is expected to happen in about 12 months from now, when it will begin to see the Fed cut interest rates.

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At the same time, when looking at the overall picture, the stock market has not seen a heavy decline. This reflects that investors are aware of the recession to a certain extent today. In addition, when looking at the profits of the US stock market Many of the reports came out less bad than the market expected. As a result, in the short term, it has a positive outlook on developed countries’ stock markets. Moreover, the current price level is trading at a cheap level on the earning yield gap of 1.5 – 2.0 SD.

Therefore, although the market is still uncertain But holding cash alone can be a waste of opportunity. Considering the risks at this time Who is a medium-long-term investor? This is a great opportunity for buying assets that are cheap and promising for future growth.

Short-term investment strategy, about 1-3 months from now, short-term investment portfolio, about 1-3 months, it is recommended to invest in stocks 40-50% and invest in money market funds (Money Market Fund) about 50%.

As for medium-term investment portfolio, approximately 1 year, it is recommended to invest in approximately 30-40% stocks in US Treasury Bills approximately 50-60% or hold approximately 10% in cash.

where the recommended stocks for this entire portfolio Invest in developed country stocks in the US, Europe, Japan in growth stocks, while commodities such as gold and oil are recommended to avoid. due to lack of interest Considering the decline in oil demand compared to the beginning of the year

Overall and asset outlook in August, we have to wait to see other economic numbers. which is an economic indicator such as employment numbers Manufacturing sector numbers due to the high level of inflation uncertainty; and

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A real recession hasn’t happened at this time. Therefore, the assets are held and have good returns may need to be considered for some profit to reduce the risk. and keep up with continuous investment news