Despite robust production and supply, the oil markets are exacerbating, so disruption of a large producer could lead to significant price impacts. "We are entering a very important phase for the oil market," emphasized the IAEA report.
"It is expected that the market will tighten in the second half of the year, because if Iranian exports go down considerably, we will rely on other producers to increase their production," said Neil Atkinson, head of The Oil Industry and markets on the IEA, CNBC said Thursday. He described Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia as some of the producers with the spare capacity to see more output in the coming months.
But that's not certain: instability in Iraq, and Libya in particular, could disrupt supply.
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, which recorded a record 4.65 million barrels a day in August, is currently experiencing violent protests in and around Basra, which houses most of its oil production facilities and its only deep-water port. Protesters blocked roads and threatened to shut down oil production facilities to protest failed state services, unemployment and political corruption.
Meanwhile, Libya, which continues to see production increase from 280,000 bpd to 950,000 bpd in the same month, remains vulnerable to disruptions from ongoing riots and security concerns. The US Department of the Treasury, along with the United Nations, imposed sanctions on a leading Libyan militia leader on Wednesday for its attacks on vital oil assets in June.
In terms of the decline in production from Iran and the consequent impact on the price of oil, there is no way of knowing how much its exports will fall, Atkinson said. While some analysts pointed out that after the sanctions, oil could reach $ 100 a barrel, Atkinson renounced any calls and said, "It's pure speculation to try to put a number on it."
"It's a matter of waiting to see what happens before November 4 in the coming weeks," he said, hinting at planned talks between the US government and other countries, such as India, China, and South Korea. "And then we have a clearer idea of where things could go."