“That some grow will depend a lot on the context in elections and the proposals. There is anti sentiment leading to unprecedented political multipolarization. I don’t see any of these politicians with significant growth chances.” add.
“The absence or malfunction of representation structures, the parties, plus the eroded legitimacy of the institutions, produce mistrust and rejection not only of politicians in power, but of any dimension of politics,” says anthropologist Pavel Aguilar, professor at the Benedict XVI Catholic University of Trujillo and researcher at the NOR Institute, in the north of the country.
“That unrepresented 50% probably not only distrusts or hates the political class, but also increasingly disaffects democracy. Although this is already the garbanzal of clientelist-type policies that operate above all at the subnational level, it could be a breeding ground for authoritarian projects of all kinds.” warns.
Infographic-The Republic
Infographic-The Republic
Between fragmentation and polarization
Analysis by: Patricia Zárate, head of IEP Opinion Studies
An almost permanent topic of discussion is that of political representation and the role of political parties. Between last year and this year, two texts have been published that explain the populist leadership of P. Castillo, Raúl Asensio “El provincialo redentor” in the book El Profe (2021) and Carlos Meléndez in Populistas (2022). The first refers to Castillo as a nativist populist and the second as a wild populist. Castillo showed an image of a regional leader who probably would not have become president under other circumstances, but political fragmentation gave him the necessary conditions to be so.
Almost a year and a half has passed since the first round of the general elections and the situation is the same or even worse. There are no political leaderships at the national level with which citizens feel represented, more than two thirds say that no one currently represents them (50% none and 18% do not know). And despite the low percentages that mention them, the two contenders for the second round of 2021 remain, Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori , with a new character who is Antauro Humala. In general, although we are talking about fairly low percentages, there is a feeling of greater representation towards the left, then the right and finally the center. Identification with the left is greater in rural areas, in the southern macrozone and in socioeconomic levels D and E.
An upcoming election will probably bring us not only the fragmentation that we are experiencing in 2021 but also greater polarization, and from the extremes it is difficult to build a better future.
