If the CCP has a strong motivation to negotiate (Xu Zheng)

Peace is the only option. This is the declaration of President Tsai Ing-wen, and it is clearly the belief of all Taiwanese. Peace is not the monopoly of any political party; negotiating peace cannot be reduced to the exclusive proposition of some political parties, but must be the goal of the whole people to go all out. Therefore, the real issue is not whether to negotiate, but how to negotiate. Moreover, negotiation and preparation are two legs for walking, and neither is indispensable.

The possibility of reciprocal negotiations depends on whether the deadlock of the one-China principle upheld by the CCP and opposed by the people of Taiwan can be untied. There is no doubt about Taiwan’s willingness to pursue reciprocal negotiations, and all parties have expressed this willingness. In addition to making all-out preparations to deter war, negotiation is also needed as a balance to reduce tension, increase communication, and avoid misjudgment. The Chinese Communist Party’s interference with aircraft and ships is an example of the need for negotiation.

The CCP does not currently have much choice. In the world situation where the United States and Taiwan are allied with each other, the traditional peace and military reunification have become increasingly unfeasible; and the current non-negotiation and coercion methods have become increasingly untenable. The impossibility of coercion is hindered by the actions of the United States in recent years. In fact, it is the CCP that is most suspicious of beauty.Over the past 70 years, the previous Taiwan Strait crises includeBattle of August 23and1996Years of missile threats, the CCP stopped under the intervention of the United States. Over the past two decades, the armed forces have been built with the focus on anti-intervention operations against the U.S. military. However, the United States has been catching up in recent years and has already established countermeasures against China’s anti-intervention. At present, the CCP cannot afford to lose a battle, and it has to avoid misfires; what’s more, peace and reunification needs to be promoted through the channel of negotiation, so the CCP also has a strong motivation to talk.

So how? Negotiations can start with unofficial to semi-official and official communications and progress gradually. The CCP will inevitably use negotiations to conduct a united front, divide Taiwan and drive a wedge between the United States and Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan must respond, and must have clear and achievable goals.

The immediate goals of the negotiations can be set on the clarification and confirmation of maintaining the status quo acceptable to both parties: including how to avoid conflicts between the two militaries (such as the middle line in the Taiwan Strait, etc.), strengthen the communication mechanism between the two sides (such as existing laws and channels, etc.), and As for Taiwan’s international relations (such as participation in international organizations, etc.). The previous agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can be used as a starting point to pursue further stabilization and institutionalization. Negotiations can start by shelving deadlocks, that is, communicating the minimum requirements of both parties, such as Taiwan shelving the four insistences and China shelving the one-China principle, 1992Koo Wang TalksIt is a successful negotiation, which can be used as a reference for the current situation.

Before negotiating, Taiwan must of course take a firm stand. The premise is to strengthen national defense to fully prepare for war and negotiate through strength. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain communication and coordination with the United States at the highest level to jointly seek peace with China. Negotiating on such a basis, Taiwan is not facing China alone, but has its own allies who speak with each other. Internally, of course, it is necessary to obtain the consensus of the majority to control risks by making steady progress. At this point, whether the ruler can gain the trust of the people is obviously the key.

After the presidential election, no matter who is elected, the CCP may consider resuming communication, which will be an opportunity to start negotiations.

(The author is a tenured honorary professor of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA) Free Times 0603

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2023-06-03 23:19:46