In its latest global outlook, the International Monetary Fund estimates that global growth should accelerate to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019.
The world | 17.04.2018 at 15:00 • Updated 17.04.2018 at 15:26 | By Marie de Vergès
himself rejoice or worry. Applaud a global growth that continues to accelerate, or be alarmed by the risks that accumulate on the horizon. This is the alternative at the time of the traditional spring meetings of the Monetary Fund international (IMF) and the World Bank being held this week in Washington. This is also the double message that emerges from the latest global economic outlook published by the IMF, Tuesday, April 17.
An ever faster recovery The pace of recovery is not weakening. After a growth of 3.8% in global GDP in 2017 – the fastest since 2011 – the IMF expects 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. A scenario supported by still favorable conditions on the markets ( despite the return of some volatility) and forecasts for a broad fiscal expansion in the United States. American growth should moreover stay particularly dynamic, at 2.9% this year and 2.7% the next, more than expected by the Fund. in his last predictions of January . The euro area should also continue 2.4% in 2018 and 2% in 2019 (2.1% and 2% for la France ). Advanced economies should record performance better than their potential growth.
Emerging Asia will continue to be the main driver of global activity, with expected growth of around 6.5% in 2018 and 2019. China should decelerate while maintaining a high cruising speed (+ 6.6% in 2018 and + 6.4% in 2019). Exporters of raw materials, finally, should see their prospects improve a little after three difficult years.
Beyond the next few quarters, “The risks are clearly downward” says the IMF in its report. Among them, the threat of a correction in the markets, if inflation and interest rates in the United States back faster than expected. A backlash that would particularly expose the most indebted economies. On the other hand, financial conditions that remain very favorable would encourage risk-taking, in the name of looking for returns.
At the moment the American president Donald Trump seems want to launch For good its great protectionist offensive, the IMF warns against the risk of new trade barriers. Such a scenario could “Undermine confidence in the markets, disrupt global value chains, and SLOW DOWN news broadcasting technology , reducing productivity and investment globally ” , say the authors of the report.
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An inevitable slowdown in the longer term Whatever the risks, global growth is likely to decelerate beyond the next two years, the IMF warns. Most advanced economies are expected to perform below pre-crisis rates, adversely affected by aging populations and sluggish productivity. US tax reform should to cease of stimulate growth to count Financial conditions, finally, will become more restrictive as central banks continue to normalize their monetary policies.
On the emerging side, China should Carry on to slow down, putting the brakes on credit and budget support programs to the activity. Prospects are favorable in Asia, but much more uncertain in Latin America, the Middle East and Latin America. Africa Saharan. There, exporters of raw materials face challenges of magnitude, between austerity, the need to to diversify and adaptation to prices that are lower than in the past.