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Japan’s responsibility is to do everything in its power to prevent an emergency in Taiwan.
(Masatoshi Fujitani: Policy Recommendation Committee Member, Japan Strategic Research Forum, Senior Researcher, Economic Security Management Support Organization, Former Director, Kanazawa Public Security Investigation Office, Public Security Intelligence Agency)
On January 9, 2023, the US think tank CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) announced the results of its own tabletop exercise (simulation), assuming that the Chinese military will carry out a landing operation on Taiwan in 2026. In most scenarios, China failed to conquer Taiwan, but the U.S. and Self-Defense Forces suffered heavy casualties, including the loss of numerous ships and aircraft.
Pointing out that Japan is the key
CSIS defined the following conditions as its “basic assumptions”: (1) Taiwan strongly resisting China, (2) the US military immediately joining the war, and (3) Japan allowing the US military to use its domestic bases. In two of the three exercises conducted under this assumption, the Chinese military failed to capture Taiwan’s major cities, and supplies were cut off in ten days. In the remaining exercise, Chinese troops landed in southern Taiwan and took control of the port in Tainan, but US airstrikes rendered the port unusable and made it impossible to maintain posture in about three weeks. CSIS analyzed the case, saying, “It cannot be judged as a decisive defeat for China, but it is a stalemate that is disadvantageous to China.”
In this simulation, the U.S. military loses approximately 2 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, 7 to 20 ships including missile cruisers, approximately 3,000 casualties, approximately 10,000 people including missing persons, and 168 to 484 aircraft. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces would enter the war if attacked by China, losing between 112 and 161 military aircraft and 26 ships. Taiwan lost more than half of its aircraft and all 26 ships. The Chinese military said 155 to 327 aircraft, 138 ships, more than 7,000 casualties on the ground, and about 7,500 dead at sea.
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