Post bombs, a military threat to a migrant caravan and the massacre in a Pittsburgh synagogue have left the home of medium-term election campaigns with a roller coaster of fear and anger. Analysts say, however, that the elections on Tuesday are two very different ways in key issues.
If the Democrats wrest control of the House of Representatives, Americans can expect to increase access to health services, raise taxes for the wealthy and businesses, and hold industry – and the Trump government – to account for more stringent regulations and oversight pull.
If the Republicans manage to retain both Congress chambers, the country will likely see new attempts to break the Affordable Care Act – despite allegations by GOP candidates to protect patients with pre-existing medical conditions, extend tax cuts, and continue easing regulations ,
Depending on the return, opportunities could be severely limited: the most likely scenario where Democrats control Parliament and Republicans hold the Senate tends to stall as both sides immediately switch to messaging for the 2020 presidential campaign.
Health care is of great importance to voters, polls have shown this year.
"Regardless of why people vote, the outcome of the election will have huge consequences for the direction of the health care debate," said Larry Levitt, vice president of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit nonprofit organization headquartered in San Francisco
In President Trump's tight-knit states and districts, Democrats have watched republicans repackage as defenders of Medicare and the most popular parts of the ACA.
Only a handful of Republican campaigns have sent ads about the Migrants Caravan that has caught the attention of the White House. In contrast, dozens of ads that promise to prevent the ACA rules from causing insurers to discriminate customers under pre-existing conditions – even if party leaders lift a lawsuit to lift the protective measure against such cover.
"I support forcing insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions," says Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican nominee for a US Senate seat, in one of his graduation summaries.
"I'm a leader in the fight to secure our border [and] Forcing insurance companies to cover already existing conditions, "says Republican candidate Republican Martha McSally from Arizona, who voted for the lifting of Obamacare.
Details on how Republicans would protect the coverage of existing conditions remain vague. Health policy analysts have pointed out that it would not be financially feasible to force insurers to cover pre-existing conditions without individuals, including healthy people, having to buy insurance – a provision of the ACA repealed by the Republicans in last year's tax law.
Republicans have also failed to agree on how to deal with the broader issue of health care, said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former Speaker of the Republican National Committee.
"I worked on the republican side of the house [ACA replacement language] 2014 for six months daily, and we could not even create a white paper, "Heye said.
Another ACA provision, Medicaid extended to low-income Americans, was reinforced during the campaign by Democrats and in typically conservative states – with electoral measures in Utah, Idaho, Nebraska and Montana. The measures are to be adopted with the support of Republicans in Utah and Idaho.
"The bottom line for many Democrats was to protect the gains made under the ACA," said Steve McMahon, a Democratic strategist. "
However, health care divisions are also hovering over Democrats, who analysts say are facing pressure for universal health when they receive a majority, given that a number of Democratic gubernatorial candidates and potential presidential candidates "Medicare-for -all "have supported. "
This debate would raise questions about a critical aspect: how can one pay for it?
In the area of taxation, the Republicans claim that the Democrats would cancel the tax cut last year. But neither the leaders of the Democrats nor most of the party's candidates have said they would lift the tax cut. Instead, as after two tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, Democrats have pledged to reconsider the tax law in order to pay more for the rich, which hardly benefits middle-class voters.
If the Democrats win the House, their leaders are expected to oversee the Trump administration activities.
"We will begin to see things that have not existed before," said Norman Ornstein, political scientist and resident scientist at the American Enterprise Institute.
The regulatory environment and the dynamics of the struggle for the Trump-ridden Consumer Financial Protection Bureau would also change with a substantial majority in the Democratic House, said Republican strategist Kevin Madden.
"And the I-word – both investigations and impeachments – would certainly be on the table," said Madden.
Democratic strategist McMahon said he hopes the Democrats, once reassigned, will focus on the concerns of "ordinary Americans" – healthcare, the environment and climate change, income inequality and tax justice – and not just "endless" electricity of subpoenas. "
Some even see a, albeit minor, opportunity to negotiate with Trump about weapons, immigration and infrastructure if a reorientation takes place in Congress.
Trump has occasionally suggested that Democrats could work with him on infrastructure spending, even though the Democratic Party's own bills – which introduced a trillion dollar package in 2017 – would thwart a Trump plan that never came How much government and private investment will be required?
With most of Washington at a dead end and stuck in that path, many of the issues most relevant to voters, from arms control to abortion and infrastructure to education, are taking place in the States ,
"Governors are becoming less restrained when it comes to the policy that has been left to Congress in the past," said Jennifer Duffy, editor-in-chief of the independent Cook Political Report. As an example, she cited Giffords Law Center's arms safety legislation to prevent gun violence, noting that a former student allegedly killed 17 people at a gymnasium in Parkland, Florida in February 17, signed 27 governors, including 14 Republicans have gun laws.
Abortion rights have motivated Democrats more than ever in the past decade, according to Pew's September poll, which shows that 61 percent of Democrats consider the issue "very important," compared with 44 percent of Republicans. For the Democrats, this number has increased by 23 points since 2008, while remaining constant for the Republicans.
The political environment shifted around the same time as the poll, as the Senate considered appointing Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. His confirmation, especially among democratic women, has increased the fear that their right to abortion could be jeopardized if the Supreme Court reverses that in 1973 Roe v. calf Verdict that abortion is decriminalized and the matter is returned to the States. Several conservative states have already limited access to abortions.
In Michigan, where the Democrats have taken the lead in nationwide races, party candidate Governor Gretchen Whitmer has released a plan to protect abortion rights regardless of future Supreme Court rulings. Michigan has not revoked a law from 1931 that prohibits most abortions Roe v. calf Decision.
Whitmer was aided by the bouts of Republican candidate Bill Schuette, the state's two-year federal prosecutor, who had repeatedly sued for the repeal of the ACA. Schuette also said that as governor, he would enforce the state law prohibiting abortion if the Supreme Court stops Roe v. calf, While Schuette has pledged to maintain the state's Medicaid expansion if elected, Whitmer has indicated that if Schuette's lawsuit pays off, the expansion would disappear overnight.
In the Campaign campaign, voters based on Whitmer are sometimes less concerned with their individual policies than with the ability to build resistance to the Trump administration. At a recent stopover in the Royal Oak suburb of Detroit, Whitmer told voters that if they won, people and communities who felt threatened would be protected.
"If we win, LGBT people go to the governor's office," Whitmer said. "If we win, clean water is on the agenda."
Marissa Bassan, 19, volunteered to promote the vote. This election is about building blocks against a republican agenda that does not slow down.
"People need a sign of what's going on in Washington," Bassan said. "I want current laws, not anarchy."