Tuesday, June 18, 2019
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Industrial production falls for the recession

The industrial production engages the reverse in the major European countries, weighing as a boulder on the performance of the economy. The Italian figure, which shows a decrease of 2.6% on an annual basis and 1.6% on October in November 2018, is only the last after the equally negative ones of Germany and France, so much so that it is presage a possible recession throughout Europe. Negative data also in Spain and in Great Britain.

Italian data

It collapses in November 2018 the production in the auto sector. According to ISTAT data, the correct index for calendar effects recorded a decline of 19.4% on an annual basis, that is, in comparison with November 2017, and of 8.6% on a monthly basis, or in comparison with October 2018. The figure confirms, but with a further deterioration, the October trend, when a trend decline of 14%. In the average of the 11 months 2018, production decreased by 5.1%.

There Italian industrial production last November it decreased by 1.6% compared to October and 2.6% compared to November 2017. In the first eleven months of 2018 Italian industrial production grew by 1.2% compared to the previous year. The ISTAT reports this on the basis of the November production estimates, adding that, in the average of the September-November 2018 quarter, the level of production declined by 0.1% compared to the previous three months.

"I was expecting and feared a negative result of industrial production: already the data for some European partners had been anticipated, and it was unlikely that even for Italy it was not a negative sign," says Premier Giuseppe Conte. «But even more important is it to have anticipated earlier and understood that this would have been the reasonable evolution of the economic trend and for this it was even more important to intervene with that economic maneuver in the sign of growth and social development».

According to the ministry of the Interior and vice-premier, Matteo Salvini, Italy is prepared for the eventuality of a new economic crisis. "We will do the opposite of the last governments. The last governments from Monti to Renzi had a positive economic situation and they cut, we with a negative international situation instead we put more money in the pockets of the Italians, it's the only smart thing to do »explained Salvini arriving at the inauguration of the 'UGL.

According to the Minister of Development and vice-premier, Luigi Di Maio, "A new economic boom could be reborn: in the 60s we had motorways, now we have to work on the creation of digital highways".

Same signals coming from the US are not more encouraging. Between trade war with China, shutdown and swing of the markets, the risk of American recession in the next twelve months is considered more and more concrete by the majority of economists. If in America we talk about future prospects, in Italy the danger may have already materialized.

Dbrs confirms Italy 'BBB (high) rating, stable trend – The rating agency Dbrs confirms its assessment of Italy with 'BBB (High)', with a stable trend.


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