Interim elections in the United States. Where does the pendulum swing?

Interim elections in the United States. Where does the pendulum swing?

WASHINGTON, November 7th. / Tass /. The current mid-term elections in the US are, as predicted by political scientists, with a significantly higher turnout than before, without any serious problems, albeit with inevitable difficulties in such cases.

Record activity of voters

According to the American press, preliminary data indicate that turnout may be the highest in more than half a century since 1952. According to the Associated Press, by midday the number of voters was more than 39 million people, with record numbers for 37 out of 50 states. However, the results of early voting were also taken into account.

According to forecasts of individual American political scientists, the turnout could exceed 100 million people. The number of registered voters in the United States exceeds 200 million people.

In this regard, experts are not yet taken to predict exactly what the voting results will be for the ruling Republican Party and democrats in opposition at this stage. "If you are sure that you know what will happen on Tuesday, then you are mistaken," says the headline of the article in The New York Times.

Forecasts

Interim elections in the United States are, in essence, a referendum on the policies of the current head of state and, as a rule, turn into a defeat for the “party of power”. Against the Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, they work, judging by the results of fresh public opinion polls, the mood of fellow citizens, and the amount of donations collected by Democrats, and the story itself.

Nevertheless, the Republican Party recalls that even two years ago, sociological research data and forecasts of political scientists almost unanimously promised victory in the presidential election to Democrat Hillary Clinton, and its political opponent Trump eventually came to the White House. Therefore, the Great Old Party (Grand Old Party, GOP – the second name of the Republican Party) recommends not to rush to give the victory to the Democrats.

In accordance with the most common conclusions of political technologists, the Democratic Party will be able to take control of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress as a result of the elections. Now the majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives are Republicans. In order to gain control of the lower house of Congress, Democrats are required to obtain at least an additional 23 mandates, and over the top only two.

Privately, Republicans actually admit that they have no particular hope of maintaining control over the House of Representatives. It is no coincidence that at the final stage of the campaign, Trump concentrated on traveling only to those states that Republicans need to maintain a majority in the Senate. At the same time, the Republicans have almost no doubt that the Senate will remain for them.

According to the American statistician, creator of the portal FiveThirtyEight.com Nathaniel Silver, the Democrats will have to make the main efforts in the elections to the Senate, since 26 of 35 places at stake now belong to them. Moreover, 10 of these legislators are in those states in which Trump won the 2016 presidential election.

"This [политическая] The card indicates that practically all circumstances should have taken shape in favor of the Democrats in order for them to gain control over the Senate, and this usually does not happen in politics. In fact, the democrats' chances of getting control of the Senate are getting worse, they are about 1 to 6 in all three versions of our forecast, ”Silver says.

The portal he founded in 2008 is known, in particular, for its predictions of the outcome of elections in the United States. In 2012, Silver and his team accurately predicted the results of presidential elections in all 50 US states. Nevertheless, in 2016, the portal gave victory to the presidential election of Hillary Clinton, assessing its chances of 71% versus 29% for Trump.

Identified problems

Commenting on the election, The Washington Post newspaper notes the existence of numerous complaints throughout the country about "broken cars [для голосования]rejected [по тем или иным причинам] bulletins and unprepared polling station workers. ”Only by noon did the coalition of American human rights organizations, which sent about 6.5 thousand of its observers and lawyers to monitor the voting process, recorded more than 10 thousand phone calls with similar complaints to 30 states.

For example, in one of the outskirts of Atlanta (Georgia), the Americans who came to the local polling station had to stand in line for about four hours. Voting due to the unavailability of the site staff did not begin at 7:00, as it should have, but at 11:00 In North Dakota, there were cases of refusal to issue ballots to representatives of local Indian tribes, who, by the way, did not seem to carry the proper identification cards. In Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Illinois, and Texas, there were cases of false triggering of electronic voting machines.

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