World Iran: Geopolitical damage | Opinion

Iran: Geopolitical damage | Opinion


No doubts. In view of the solemn and serious intervention yesterday of Donald Trump, announcing more sanctions to Iran and calling on European allies, NATO, Russia and China, to surrender to their threat strategy, the escalation continues even at a lower speed of what could be feared at first. The Iranian attack may seem limited when compared to the assassination of the regime's number two, Qasem Soleimani, but it has sufficient dimensions, even without having produced US casualties, as Trump has assured, as to doubt that everything remains in this play, in which Tehran has lost more than a bishop.

The Iranian authorities, in any case, have calculated the envy to the millimeter. Face to face it is enough to sell it as a sufficient response, a vengeance and a tribute to martyr, that "slap in the face" of the United States proclaimed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Facing outside, he intends to obtain the withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq and, if possible, from the entire region, something that until now was among the ideas that Trump sympathized with, as long as it was sold as a victory. This would be the true political performance of the loss of a piece as valuable as General Soleimani.

The mystery still remains about the true nature of Trump's decision and its warmongering environment. He underlines his strategy of destroying everything Obama forged in his presidency, especially the nuclear agreement with Iran, evoked yesterday in his threatening intervention in the White House as madness that has facilitated the financing of missiles that kill US citizens.

But it is difficult to know what exactly the purpose was, whether merely to restore the deterrent lost in presidential gesticulation and inaction, or the unlikely liquidation of the Iranian regime at the expense of even an open war. If it was the first objective, Trump has gone hand in hand and, instead of restoring deterrence, a way of guaranteeing stability and peace through terror, he has entered the mist of war escalation. The second objective, the regime change, is still more difficult and with a more dark horizon, to the point that it evokes international war scenarios.

So far, the attack has reinforced the regime. Difficult to distinguish between hawks and pigeons. Opposition movements that were spreading throughout the region of Iranian influence, in Lebanon and in Iraq, in addition to Iran itself, have seen a closing of ranks, with the expulsion of US troops by flag.

The geopolitical damages of an action doubtfully conceived are out of any calculation. The murder has encouraged the acceleration of the Iranian nuclear program and with it the proliferation at least among neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia. The projected departure of US troops from Afghanistan in the midst of an ongoing negotiation is cheaper. He has blown oxygen into the exhausted and defeated Islamic State project, which will see the energies summoned to liquidate it against Iran. Russia and China also receive the gift of new assets to gain hegemony in the region.

Donald Trump has entered the most dangerous scenario he could imagine at the start of the election year and with the impeachment on going. Faced with a warlike escalation in an explosive region such as the Middle East, it is time to remember the suitcase that accompanies it in all its displacements, as the last and only authority to detonate an atomic device before what in its opinion constitutes an aggression of its enemy. He promises that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, but he, an unpredictable and erratic president where they exist, does.

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