In less than thirty years the number of deaths will be double that of births. L’Italia continues to grow old: the latest Report of theState on the forecasts of the resident population and families. In the 2050, the percentage of people over 65 will rise by more than ten points, reaching 34.9% according to Istat. Today the over 65 they are 23.5% of the total population, while the under 14 they represent 12.9% of Italians. We are in an “accentuated and prolonged phase of aging” and the decades to come will continue in this direction. At this rate we will arrive in 2049 with deaths that could double the births: 788 thousand against 390 thousand.
“For about 15 years Italy has been facing a negative natural turnover, at the basis of the reduction of the population, despite the partial counterpart of positive migratory dynamics with foreign countries ”, explains the report. Institutions will therefore have to adopt the necessary policies to address the ageing society: il welfare he will have to find a difficult balance between the many elderly and the few births. According to Istat forecasts, young people up to 14 years will be 11.7% in 2050, a slight decrease compared to today. There intergenerational balance that is, it will measure a ratio of three to one between the elderly and the young.
Even the population in working age is destined to decrease: by 2050 there should be a decrease of almost 9 million citizens aged between 15 and 64 years. Translated into percentages, this means a passage from 63.6% of the population to 53.4%.
The differences between nord e sud, reads the latest Istat report, they will also be demographic. Both the north and the south will get older. The south, however, will overtake the north in seniority, with an expected average age of 49.9 versus 49.2. The aging trend will continue in the south also in the long term, up to an average age of 52 years.
The main cause of population aging is the passage of the children of baby boom from adulthood to old age. The reduction of citizens of working age is explained by the same reason: in the long term, by 2070, there should instead be a partial balance in the distribution of the population. Not even the most optimistic forecasts of Istat contradict this trend: “Even in the most favorable birth and mortality scenarios, the projected number of births would not offset that of deaths”.
As for the composition of the population, an increase in the number of women is expected within twenty years families of about one million units, thus reaching 26.3 million nuclei. However, these are increasingly smaller families: in 2041 on average they will be made up of 2.1 people, against the current 2.3.